ArmInfo. From the point of view of monetary policy, inflation in Armenia is manageable. This January 23, during the parliamentary hearings on the rise in prices for certain types of goods, said the head of the Central Bank (CB) of Armenia Artur Javadyan.
The chief banker recalled that in 2017 the Central Bank of Armenia continued the policy of reducing the refinancing rate from 6.25% to 6%, thereby softening the inflationary environment. Annual inflation was forecasted at 2.5%, which corresponds to the actual data of the National Statistical Service of Armenia - by 2.6%, and is close to the lower limit of the allowable range.
Meanwhile, as the head of the Armenian Central Bank, the inflation for 2017 in neighboring Georgia was 6.7%, 7.9% in Azerbaijan, 2.5% in Russia, 13.7% in Ukraine, 7 in Moldova, 3%, in Turkey - 19.9%, and in Iran - 10%. If we consider accumulative data for the last two years, inflation in Armenia was 1.5%, in Georgia - 8.6%, Azerbaijan - 24.6%, in Russia - 8%, in Ukraine - 27.8%, in Moldova - 10%, in Turkey - 21.4%, in the IRI - about 20%.
The Chairman of the Central Bank noted that for 2 consecutive years inflation expectations were falling, which is extremely important for any economy. Interest rates have dropped, de-financialization of the financial sector has taken place, dram deposits have grown 33.5%, foreign exchange - 10.1%. The outstripping growth was also recorded in dram credits - 28.8%, foreign currency loans grew by 10.6%, which means a significant increase in confidence in the national currency. "However, at this stage, due to the growth of excise tax rates and customs duties, as well as inflation for some products, inflation expectations have increased, which are further exacerbated by the speculation of a number of experts," Javadyan said, noting that the Central Bank considers these expectations " unambiguously overvalued. "
As for the inflation forecast for January 2018, Artur Javadyan noted that according to the operational data of the Central Bank for the period from December 20, 2017 to January 20, 2018, despite the rise in prices for gasoline, compressed gas and diesel fuel, inflation in January 2018 will be at the same level as in previous years. In general, assessing the impact of changes in customs-tax interest rates, as well as their secondary impact, the head of the agency says that from the point of view of monetary policy, inflation in Armenia is manageable. According to him, the year 2017 was characterized by a low inflationary environment, which, as part of the monetary policy pursued, is approaching the target by the Central Bank. "For 2018, the Central Bank predicts that inflation will gradually approach the target index of 4% and stabilize," concluded Arthur Javadyan.