ArmInfo. According to the World Bank forecasts, the share of Armenia's national debt in GDP will grow to 59.6% in 2018, from 58.9% in 2017, and the external debt to 48.4% from 47.9% in 2017. In 2019, the World Bank predicts a decline in the share of public debt in GDP to 59.3%, and external debt in GDP - up to 48%. This forecast is given in the updated analytical report of the World Bank on the economy of Armenia. The report notes that Armenia's external debt in 2018 will be $ 5,184.6 million with growth in 2019 to $ 5295.9 million.
The World Bank also forecasts that net foreign direct investment from $ 475 million in 2017 will grow to $ 510 million in 2018, with further growth to $ 545 million in 2019. Armenia's international reserves from $ 2,060 million in 2017 will grow to $ 2,180 million in 2018.
In terms of exports, the WB forecasts an increase from $ 1,906.4 million in 2017 to $ 2013.8 million in 2018, with a further increase to $ 2,222.9 million in 2019. In particular, exports of metals and natural resources from $ 761.8 million in 2017 will grow to $ 807.2 million in 2018, finished food products - from $ 465.6 million in 2017 to $ 495.7 million in 2018, precious metals and stones - from $ 373.7 million in 2017 to $ 395.3 million in 2018. On imports, the WB forecasts growth from $ 3,516.9 million in 2017 to $ 3,747.2 million in 2018 with a further increase to $ 3,942.1 million in 2019.
The current account deficit under the WB forecast from $ 415.2 million in 2017 will decrease to $ 410.7 million in 2018 with a further decline to $ 397.9 million in 2019, resulting in its share in GDP from 4% in 2017 will decrease to 3.8-3% in 2018-2019.
The growing national debt and continuing migration in Armenia have already deepened the specific debt burden per capita to $ 2.3 thousand by January 1, 2018, of which over $ 1.8 thousand comes from external debt, against $ 2 thousand and $ 1.6 thousand respectively, by January 1, 2017. Taking into account the same real scale of migration, the burden of public debt per capita would be much higher. According to statistical data, as of January 1, 2018 the population of the RA amounted to 2.973 million, compared to 2.986 million a year earlier and 3.274 million five years earlier.
In 2017, the degree of coverage of foreign debt with gold and foreign exchange reserves decreased from 45.9% to 39.6% amid a significant increase in external debt and a fall in reserves. The share of national debt in Armenia's GDP reached 56.6% by the end of 2016. And judging by the expected GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 (the Central Bank predicts 6.4%, and the government - 5.5-6%) against the background of existing evidence on public debt, the share of the latter in GDP may exceed 58%.
According to the World Bank's forecast updated in January 2018, Armenia's GDP growth in 2018 will be 3.8% with an acceleration to 4% in 2019, against the expected 3.7% in 2017. According to official statistics, economic activity in Armenia increased by 7.7% per annum in 2017, against the 0.5% growth for 2016. The volume of exports increased in 2017 by 25.2% to 1082.1 billion AMD ($ 2242.9 million), and imports - by 27.8% to 2018.3 billion AMD ($ 4,182.7 million).