ArmInfo. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank of Armenia, GDP growth in 2018 will be 4.7-5.8%, in 2019 - 4.5-5.9%, in 2020 - 4.4-6%. This is set out in the Monetary Policy Program (MCP) of the Central Bank for the first quarter of 2018, published in late February. Here is an updated forecast for GDP growth for 2017 - 7.2-7.4%, which is due to the growth of consumption of the private sector by 10.2% and investment - by 13.4%.
The Central Bank of Armenia forecasts an increase in imports in 2018 by 6-8%, with exports growing by 9- 10%. The growth of remittances in the current year is expected to be within 7-9%, consistent with the strengthening of the ruble and the scenario for assessing Russia's economic growth.
The Central Bank expects that in the areas of the drivers of economic growth - industry and services - the growth rate in 2018 will slow down somewhat.
According to the World Bank's updated forecast for January 2018, the GDP growth in Armenia was 3.7%, with acceleration in 2018 to 3.8% and in 2019 to 4%. The Central Bank of Armenia previously forecast GDP growth by 4.4-4.9% (an average of 4.6%) in 2017, in early January 2018 revised the GDP growth estimate for 2017 in the direction of acceleration to 6.4%, and the Government of their expectations in 2017, GDP growth was estimated at 5.5-6%, revised at the beginning of 2018 in the direction of 6.7-7.4%. The state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2017 laid the GDP growth by 3.2%, and by 2018 - 4.5%.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, Armenia's GDP grew by 7.5% in 20175.580 trillion AMD ($ 11.6 billion). A year earlier, in 2016, GDP growth slowed to 0.2% from 3.2% in 2015. The GDP deflator index in 2017 was 102.2%, against 100.5% in 2016 and 101.2% in 2015. Economic growth in 2017 was supported by the services sector - by 14.4% per annum, trade - by 14% and the industrial sector - by 12.6%, against growth of 7.1%, 0.1% and 6.7%, respectively, a year earlier. A relatively modest growth was also ensured by the energy complex and the construction sector - 6.1% and 2.2%, which recorded a decline of 6.2% and 10.8% a year earlier. Against this background, the agricultural sector, delayed in the recession, only slowed down to 3% from 5.2% in 2016. Armenia's foreign trade turnover for the year 2017 increased by 26.9%, in particular exports - by 25.2% and imports - by 27.8%. A year earlier, in 2016, foreign trade turnover increased by 7.4% due to growth in exports by 20% and imports by 1.6%. In 2015, the foreign trade turnover decreased by 20.6% per annum due to a 26.5% drop in imports with a 3.9% decline in exports.