Tuesday, May 11 2010 16:45
Central Bank of Armenia forecasts 3,7% growth of private consumption in 2010
ArmInfo. Central Bank of Armenia has revised the forecasts for 2010 concerning expenses of the private sector towards growth. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy programme for the second quarter of 2010, the forecast has been revised proceeding on the basis that the rates of recovery of the world and domestic economy have become more active.
According to the revised forecasts, growth of private expenses is expected in 2010, that is conditioned by increase of both private consumption and private investments. Thus, private investments during the year will grow by 11,8% in view of improvement of expectations of economic entities regarding the economic situation, increase of transfers and gradual recovery of internal and external demand. Moreover, growth of private consumption in 2010 will make up 3,7% in view of growth of private income. In view of real growth of private expenses during 2010, the gap between private expenses and their potential level, formed in 2009 as a result of the crisis, will reduce. At the same time, private expenses in 1Q, 2011 will equal their potential level having zeroed the gap. In view of the above mentioned, private expenses in 2010 will form deflation pressure on the consumer market within 0,3-0,6%.
Along with it, growth of export of goods and services by 25-30% in dollar terms is expected in 2010. Actual goods and services export growth will vary within 4-6%. Meanwhile, import of goods and services in dollar terms will grow by 12-15% in dollar terms under actual 4-6% growth of import of goods and services.
As a result, one may expect that the deficit of the current account to GDP ratio in 2010 will remain at the level of 2009 within 14-16%.
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