Wednesday, June 16 2010 14:13
Central Bank of Armenia forecasts 11,8% growth of private investments in 2010
ArmInfo. Central Bank of Armenia has revised the forecasts for 2010 on private spending towards growth. According to CB's monetary policy programme, the forecast for 2Q 2010 has been revised based on the active rates of recovery of the world and domestic economy.
According to the revised forecasts, growth of private investments is expected in 2010, that is conditioned by increase of both private spending and private investments. So, private investments during the year will grow by 11,8% in view of improvement of economic entities' expectations regarding the economic situation, increase of transfers and gradual recovery of internal and external demand. Moreover, growth of private spending in 2010 will make up 3,7% due to growth of private income.
In view of actual growth of private expenditures during 2010, deficit between private expenditures and their potential level, having been formed in 2009 as a result of the crisis, will gradually reduce. At the same time, private expenditures in1Q 2011 will come up to their potential level having zeroed the deficit. In virtue of the afore-indicated, private transfers during 2010 will form deflation pressure on the consumer market within 0,3- 0,6%.
At the same time in 2010 the volume of the exported goods and services may grow by 25- 30% in the dollar terms. However, the real growth of exported goods and services is about 4-6%, whereas import of goods and services will grow by 12-15% over the current year while the real growth of import of goods and services is 4-6%.
As a result, in 2010 one may expect that ratio between deficit of the current account to the GDP will be preserved at the previous year level - 14-16%.
According to Armenian National Statistics Service, the volume of foreign trade circulation for Jan-Apr 2010 grew by 30,9% as against the same period of 2009, and by 5,7% in April and amounted to $1408.7 mln or 545.1 bln drams. In its structure the share of export for Jan-Apr grew by 64,3%, and in April if compared with March - by 20,6%. Import grew by 24,4% for Jan-Apr, and by 1.9% in April as against March. The budget revenues for Jan-Apr 2010 amounted to 233,757 bln drams or 30,1% of GDP, and the budget expenses - 243 bln drams or 31,3% of GDP. As a result, the deficit was 9.2 bln drams or 1,2% of GDP. 1% inflation was registered at the Armenian consumer market in May, and 5,3% in Jan-May, and 6,3% in May 2010 as against May 2009.
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