Saturday, February 5 2011 15:28
Central Bank of Armenia forecasts 5.3% inflation by the end of 2011
ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) forecasts 9.5% annual inflation by the end of the first half-year 2011. With 41% probability the annual inflation may be fixed at 5,5-7,5% by the end of 2011. The CBA monetary policy program for Q1 2011 says that starting Q3 2011 the inflation rates will be decelerating and by the end of the year the target inflation will be 5,3% against the planned 4+/- 1,5%.
According to the source, the high annual inflation rate in the first half-year of 2011 will be conditioned by the supply shock of 2010, including the unprecedentedly high prices of agricultural products and growth of international prices of food and raw materials.
Taking into account the above-mentioned, one should stiffen the monetary conditions and continue taking dedollarization measures to bring inflation to its target limit (4%).
According to the latest data, in 2010 (Jan-Dec) the official inflation rate in Armenia made up 9,4%. In the food market (including alcohol and tobacco) 14% inflation was fixed, in the non-food market - 4,6% inflation, and the tariffs for services rose by 4,2%. The average monthly price growth in Jan-Dec 2010 made up 0,8%. In Jan 2011 inflation made up 2,8%, and as compared with Jan 2010 - 10,6%.