Thursday, August 18 2011 12:18
By the end of 2011 inflation will be 3-5.5%, in 2012 - 1-4%
ArmInfo. In the second half of 2011 inflation will begin to go down and will reach the minimum target level of 3.2% by the end of the year. In Q3 2011 it will make up 2.7%, says the monetary-credit policy of the Central Bank of Armenia for Q3 2011.
There is 74.2% probability that by the end of this year annual inflation will make up 3-5.5% and 70.5% probability that in Q2 2012 it will range within 1-4%.
These downward projections are based on the following external deflationary tendencies: dropping international food and fuel prices, favorable conditions in agriculture, stable interest rates. This all notwithstanding, inflation risks are still existent and high due to pessimistic expectations from agriculture and some external factors.
The National Statistical Service of Armenia reports 0.4% inflation in Jan-July 2011 and 3% deflation in July 2011 alone due mostly to dropping food prices. In July 2011 as compared with July 2010 inflation made up 6.3%, in Jan-July 2011 as compared with Jan-July 2010 - 9.4%.
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