Thursday, August 18 2011 15:13
Armenia's Central Bank revises its growth outlook for key monetary-credit figures
ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia has revised its growth outlook for key monetary-credit figures following stable internal and external inflation tendencies and expected softening of inflation pressure in Q2 2011.
According to the CB's monetary-credit policy, in 2011 Armenia's money supply will grow by 19.6%, AMD supply - by 20.8%, monetary base - by 13.6%. The annual growth of AMD cash will make up 14.4%. AMD deposits will grow by 28.8%, foreign exchange deposits - by 18.1%. As a result, the dollarization rate will drop by 1.3% while the rates of monetization and dramization will grow by 12%.
The high economy lending activities observed in the first half of 2011 will be continued. Consumer lending will grow due to growth in commercial and mortgage lending. The CB forecasts 24.6% growth in economy lending. Foreign exchange will remain prevalent in Armenia's loan book.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in June 2011 Armenia's money supply will grow by 2%, in Jan-June 2010 - by 6.1%, as compared with June 2010 - by 23% to 967.3bln AMD or $2.6bln on July 1 2011.
The share of cash outside the banking system in the money supply will grow by 2.7% in June 2011 dropping by 0.8% and 13.8% in Jan-June 2011 and as compared with June 2010, respectively. The share of AMD deposits made up 24.7% or 239.5bln AMD, that of foreign exchange deposits - 44% or 426bln AMD.
In June 2011 Armenia's monetary base grew by 6.4%, in Jan-JUne 2011 - by 2.5%, as compared with June 2010 - by 19.7% to 520.2bln AMD or $1.4bln July 1 2011.
In June 2011 loans grew by 1.8%, in Jan-June 2011 - by 17.8%, as compared with June 2010 - by 37.7% to 1.109trl AMD or $3.008bln July 1 2011. The share of AMD loans made up 40.5%, the rest being foreign exchange loans.
In June 2011 AMD loans grew by 3% (12.7% growth in Jan-June 2011), foreign exchange loans - by 1.7% (24.7% growth in Jan-June 2011). Deposits grew by 3.7% in June 2011, by 11.8% in Jan-June 2011 and by 25.2% as compared with June 2010 to 785.7bln AMD or $2.1bln: 30.2% AMD deposits, 69.8% - foreign exchange deposits.
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