Friday, December 16 2011 22:18
Armenian Central Bank forecasts 19%-22% growth of transfers by late 2011
ArmInfo. Armenian Central Bank forecasts a 19%-22% growth of transfers by late 2011 following the significant growth of the inflow of money remittances into the country for the first three quarters.
The monetary policy of the Central Bank of Armenia for Q4 2011 says net inflow of non-commercial personal transfers to Armenia will grow 11%-13% for Jan-Sept 2012. The Central Bank explains the expected slackening of the growth rates with the new economic growth forecasts in Russia for 2012. Specifically, IMF forecasts a 4.3% economic growth in Russia by late 2011, and a 4,1% GDP growth for 2012, which is by 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous forecast.
At the same time, according to CB's data, private non-commercial remittances to the country totaled $1.093 bln for Jan-Sept 2011, which was by 23.3% higher than for the same period of 2010. Outflow of the private remittances from Armenia for the first three quarters of 2011 totaled $101 million, which was 22% more than a year ago.
Total private net transfers (outflow-inflow difference) to Armenia amounted to $902 million as of Oct 1 2011 showing a 24% Y-o-Y growth. Inflow of the private net transfers to Armenia for Sept alone totaled $123.3 million as inflow made up $148.3 mln and outflow - $25 million.
By CBs' data, Russia traditionally ranks the first in the list of the countries Armenia receives transfers from. Thus, private personal transfers from Russia to Armenia for Jan-Sept 2011 totaled $908.1 million (a 25.8% growth versus Jan-Sept 2010), with outflow of transfers to Russia totaling $101.2 million (a 27% growth). In fact, net inflow of transfers from Russia totaled $806.9 million (a 25.7%b growth).
USA goes the second with $52.4 million transfers to Armenia (a 9.1% Y-o-Y growth), with transfers to the USA from Armenia totaling $19.4 million (a 10.6% Y-o-Y growth). In fact, net inflow of transfers totaled $33 million transfers (an 8.2% Y-o-Y growth). Ukraine is the third in the list with $19.4 million transfers (a 34% growth versus Jan-Sept 2010), with the outflow of remittances to Ukraine totaling $12.1 million (20.2% growth versus Jan-Sept 2010). In fact, net private remittances from Ukraine amounted to $7.3 million (a 66% growth).
Then goes Kazakhstan with $14.7 million transfers (a 20% growth), with outflow of funds to Kazakhstan from Armenia totaling $1.4 million (2.2fold growth). Transfers from Germany totaled $8.1 million with the outflow of transfers to Germany totaling $5.1 million. Inflow of transfers from France totaled $7.7 million, and outflow made up $5.6 million. Spain is the next with $5.7 million transfers to Armenia. Outflow of funds to Spain totaled $2.3 million. Money remittances from and to the UAE totaled $2.4 million and $5.4 million, respectively. Transfers from Turkey to Armenia amounted to 41.8 million, with the outflow to Turkey totaling $3.7 million. China is the last with $374,000 transfers to Armenia and $6 million from Armenia.
Net private personal transfers to Armenia in 2010 totaled $1.294bln, with the outflow of funds making up $222 million.
At present, 21 commercial banks and 17 various international money transfer systems carry out private money remittances in Armenia: Contact, MoneyGram, Migom, Leader, "Zolotaya Korona " "Bistraya Pochta ", BLIZKO, InterExpress, Private Money, and others. The biggest actors in the given segment of the market are UNIStream and Anelik.
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