Wednesday, April 18 2012 22:05
Armenian Central Bank forecasts slackening of economic growth for 2012 in Armenia
ArmInfo. Armenian Central Bank has reduced the economic growth forecast for Armenia for 2012. The Monetary Policy Program of the Central Bank for Q1 2012 envisages 3.1%-4.8% economic growth for 2012.
CB experts say probability of retaining a 2.5%-5% economic growth index is 56.1% for Q1 and 51.4% for Q2, while for Q3 and Q4 this probability will certainly slacken to 43.9% and 37.2%, respectively. The CB forecasts slackening of the economic growth as a result of slow recovery of the global demand and pessimistic expectations of economic entities regarding perspectives of the economic situation.
The industrial sector is expected to grow 5%-7% in 2012 due to the sub-sectors with big export potential (mining industry, metallurgy, production of foods and drinks, lapidary industry and energy). The CB forecasts certain slackening of the growth rates over possible reduction of the global and local economic growth rates.
The construction sector is expected to growth 3.5%-5.5% due to the growth of construction in the energy and agrarian sectors, as well as in the sphere of transport and communication. The forecast for 2012 was not changed significantly because of nearly 2fold decline in the sector in 2008-2011.
The growth in the sector of services will make up 2.5%-4.5% without any significant changes in the forecast. The forecast is based on expectations of increase in the private and state expenses, which will, in turn, influence both the trade turnover and services.
In the agrarian sector the forecast was reduced because of the relatively high sectorial base formed due to the growth outstripping forecasts for 2011. Thus, in 2012 the agricultural sector will growth 4%-6% thanks to the increasing plant growing and cattle-breeding.
In the basic scenario the risks of economic growth depend on both internal and external factors. The risk forecasts were reduced due to the slow recovery of the global economy and insignificant growth of the internal demand. In particular, in the industrial sector risk forecasts were reduced because of the slower recovery rates of the global economy and insignificant growth of internal demand. Risks in the construction sector are high due to the large-scale investment projects in construction of roads and infrastructures. In the agrarian sector risks are balanced due to the high dependence on natural and climatic conditions. According to the monetary policy program, the uncertainty because of the slackening recovery of the global economy hinders economic development of Armenia increasing the probability of the economic growth reduction risks envisaged by the basic scenario.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, economic activity in Armenia was up 6.1% for Jan-Dec 2011. This indicator grew 5.9% as against the same period of 2010. The economic activity grew following the 25.4% growth of electricity generation, 16.3% growth of the construction sector and 16% growth of the industrial sector amid 4.7% growth of consumer prices. In Jan-Dec 2011 versus the same period of 2010 GDP components grew 14.5% in the energy sector, 14/1% in the industrial and agricultural sectors. The growth of this indicator in December was high in the trade sector - 59%, construction sector - 33.5%, energy sector - 23.7% and services sector - 17.6%. In Jan-Dec 2011 versus the same period of 2010 only construction sector suffered decline -11.5%. Gross agricultural produce totaled 825.2 billion drams ($2.2 bln) with a 2.3% growth for Jan-Dec 2011.Industrial production totaled 992.1 bln drams ($2.7 bln) with a 14.1% growth for Jan-Dec 2011. Electricity generation totaled 7432.7 mln kWh with a 14.5% growth for the period under review. Services provided to the population amounted to 872.4 billion drams ($2.3 bln) with a 6.1% growth versus 2010. Trade sector grew 3.5% to 2 trillion drams ($5.5 bln) versus 2010 and 6.7% for Jan-Dec 2011. The construction sector totaled 480.8 billion drams ($1.3 billion).
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