Friday, May 25 2012 19:25

There are no serious grounds for rise in AMD/USD exchange rate in Armenia: experts


ArmInfo. Due to the Central Bank's intervention on Friday, the AMD/USD exchange rate on the retail market rolled back from 411 AMD to 408 AMD per 1 USD.

Experts believe that the measure might have been much more decisive, but without it the rate would continue to grow, making things even worse.

According to NASDAQ OMX Armenia, on Friday the amount of foreign exchange transactions on the stock exchange totaled $12.860mln, with the exchange rate being 407.22 AMD/1 USD.

On Thursday the turnover was $300,000, while the exchange rate was 406 AMD/1 USD, but in the evening it was already 409 AMD/1 USD.

From May 17 till May 22 the market was quiet. Everybody was waiting to see what would happen on May 22, when the CB was planning to issue $20mln to prevent speculations. But after a drop to 401.95 AMD, the rate started climbing again to hit 407.44 AMD on May 24.

Experts believe that the growth might be caused by high USD demand among importers rather than by some macro-economic factors. One more reason might be the post-election developments, particularly, the refusal of Prosperous Armenia to join the Republican Party. But the most convincing explanation is growing outflow of capital after the elections: in Q1 2012 the inflow of private money transfers grew by 10.3%, while the outflow by 13.8%, and it was especially high for Russia, the UAE, China and Turkey.

The growth in the AMD/USD rate started in early May 2012, when the rate was 392 AMD/1 USD.
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