Tuesday, May 29 2012 17:29

Theorist: Impact of foreign factors on the AMD/USD exchange rate to start weakening by July


ArmInfo. The impact of the foreign factors on the AMD/USD exchange rate will start weakening by July, Hayk Mnatsakanyan, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Deputy Head of Financial Accounting Chair of the Yerevan State University, said at a press conference in Yerevan. He added that by July the international prices of oil will supposedly grow.

The recent abrupt growth of the AMD/USD exchange rate is also explained by the impact of internal factors, including the seasonal factor when the citizens go abroad for a vacation, thereby increasing the demand for USD. Mnatsakanyan pointed out that the weak AMD devaluation stimulates the export of domestic products, thereby, enhancing the competitiveness of the local products abroad. .

As regards the inflation level, the expert said that within the year the inflation will remain at the target level of the Central Bank of Armenia (41.5%).

Mnatsakanyan said that as a result of the exchange rate fluctuations, the holders of the USD savings will find themselves at an advantage, while those of AMD savings should invest their money in the real sector of economy now.

To note, on May 22 the average AMD/USD exchange rate in the retail currency market rose beyond the psychological limit of 400 AMD/1USD and totaled 407.44 AMD/1USD as of May 24. According to the data of the Armenian commercial banks, today the maximum buying price was 406 AMD/1 USD and the minimum selling price was 408 AMD/1USD.

According to a number of experts, the growth of the USD exchange rate is connected with the increase in the demand for foreign exchange by the importers, who laid down high demands before the banks, and the CBA's interference will most likely satisfy their appetites. In this context, one should not expect further growth in the exchange rate within the short-term outlook. The exchange rate growth may also be connected with the reduction of the CBA's foreign exchange reserves, post-electoral processes and payment of dividends to the foreign founders of 2011.
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