Friday, June 8 2012 21:43
Experts: USD will continue to appreciate in Armenia
ArmInfo. The AMD/USD exchange rating will continue to grow and will hit 430 AMD/1 USD in the coming months. By the end of 2013 it will reach 509.2 AMD/1 USD and by the end of 2014 as much as 531.8 AMD/1 USD, President of the Republican Union of Employers of Armenia Gagik Magaryan told journalists on Friday.
He said that Armenia's economy is not ready for low USD and that there are certain importers who are interested in its appreciation.
Member of the Armenian National Congress, former Mayor of Yerevan, economist Vahagn Khachatryan gave several reasons why USD was bound to grow in Armenia: the Central Bank's reserves have recently shrunk by as much as $350mln; the Government has not gained as much foreign exchange from exports as it expected - mostly because of declining non-ferrous metal prices; despite this year's growth in money transfers, most of them have come from Russia, a country that is heavily dependent on the world's oil prices. "And now that the prices are declining, the inflow of transfers from Russia will decrease," Khachatryan said.
One more reason is that in 2013-2014 Armenia will have to repay $600mln in national debt.
As far as Khachatryan knows, in early June circulating cash in Armenia totaled 399bln AMD or $965.5mln.
"Generally, we have so much cash only before the New Year holidays. Now we have it because as much as $120mln-130mln was given in bribes before the recent parliamentary elections. So much cash should have provoked inflation. The Central Bank should have lowered the official rate to galvanize the economy, but nothing of the kind happened because in Armenia general market mechanisms are inoperative," Khachatryan said.
He is sure that after 20 June, when the new cabinet is formed, the prices will start to grow.
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