Tuesday, July 17 2012 17:12
Central Bank of Armenia forecasts 3.5-4.8% economic growth for 2012
ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) forecasts Armenia's economic growth for 2012 to slightly accelerate. The CBA's monetary and credit policy program for Q2 2012 says that this year economic growth is expected to be 3.5-4.8% against the previously forecasted 3.1-4.8%. In the meantime, the forecasted trends of economic growth will remain at 4-5%. The forecasted acceleration of the economic growth is mostly conditioned by possible faster recovery rates of the domestic and foreign demand amid the optimistic expectations of the world economic growth in the offing.
According to the source, in Jan-June 2012 versus Jan-June 2011 the economic growth is expected to be 2.4- 5% with a probability of 90%, and 3.7-4.3% - with a probability of 30%. In the meantime, in Jan-Dec 2012 versus Jan-Dec 2011 the economic growth is expected to be 0.1-6.5% with a probability of 90%, and 3.5- 4.8% - with a probability of 30%.
In the industrial sector the growth for 2012 is expected to be 8.5-10.5% due to the spheres with a strong export potential (ore-mining industry, metallurgy, production of food and beverages, lapidary sphere and energy). In addition, the growth rates are expected to accelerate due to the expected increase of the growth rates of world economy and Armenia's economy.
In the construction sector, 2.5-4.5% growth is expected due to the construction boost in the energy and agrarian sectors, as well as in the sphere of transport and communication. The growth for 2012 is expected to slightly decelerate due to the lower growth of the construction sector over Q1 2012 than expected.
In the sphere of services the growth for 2012 is expected to be 2.8-4.8%. The growth is expected to slightly accelerate and the forecast is based on the expected indices of the domestic demand, which, in its turn, influences both the trade turnover and the services. In the agrarian sector the forecast for the growth has not changed much. For instance, in 2012 the growth in the sphere of agriculture is expected to be 3-5% due to the expected growth in plant growing and kettle breeding.
To note, according to the data of the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Jan-May 2012 versus Jan- May 2011 economic activity of Armenia grew by 7.4%, and in May alone - by 14.1%. The growth for May was mostly due to 55.6% growth in construction, 32.5% growth in agriculture, 22.5% growth in energy, 13.4% growth in industry and 9.6% in trade. In absolute terms trade in Jan-May 2012 totaled 699.8 bln AMD ($1.8 bln, 1.7% y-o-y growth), and in May - 164.9 bln AMD ($414.4 mln). Agriculture output made up 150.1 bln AMD ($383.9 mln) in Jan-May 2012 (3.2% y-o-y growth), and 46.2 bln AMD ($116.2 mln) in May. Construction amounted to 94.5 bln AMD ($241.7 mln) in Jan-May 2012 (8% y-o-y decline), and 33.2 bln AMD ($83.4 mln) in May.
The biggest growth in Jan-May 2012 versus Jan-May 2011 was fixed in industrial production - by 15% to 409.5 bln AMD ($1 bln), and by 13.4% to 92.1 bln AMD ($231.4 mln) in May. The index of prices of industrial products dropped by 2.6% in May 2012 and grew by 5.9% as compared to the same period of 2011. Electric power output grew to 3395.4 mln KW/h in Jan- May 2012 (10.1% y-o-y growth), and 640.2 mln KW/h in May. In Jan-May 2012 services amounted to 362.1 bln AMD ($926 mln), having grown by 10.4% versus Jan- May 2011 and by 4.9% to 77.2 bln AMD in May.
In Jan-May 2012 versus Jan-May 2011 foreign trade turnover of Armenia grew by 9% to 875.5 bln AMD ($2.2 bln). In Jan-May 2012 export made up 219.6 bln AMD ($561.7 mln), with the y-o-y growth being 15.2%. Import amounted to 655.9 bln AMD ($1.7 bln), with the y-o-y growth being 7.1%. Over May 2012 foreign trade turnover grew by 9% to 193.8 bln AMD ($488.2 mln), particularly, export - by 33% to 48.6 bln AMD ($122.2 mln.) and import - by 2.9% to 145.2 bln AMD ($366 mln). The average AMD/USD exchange rate was 391.05 AMD/$1 in Jan-May 2012, and 397.92 AMD/$1 in May 2012.
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