Tuesday, April 16 2013 17:05

In Armenia consumer confidence is pessimistic for current conditions but optimistic for future conditions


ArmInfo. In Q1 the consumer confidence index in Armenia was assessed lower than in Q4 and Q1 2012. The press service of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) told ArmInfo that in Q1 2013 the consumer confidence index was estimated at 44 points against 45.6 points in Q4 and 47.3 points in Q1 2012.

The source says that the current conditions subindex dropped from 42.8 to 35.4 for Q1 2013 versus the same period of 2012, with a 4-point decline for Q1 2013 versus Q4 2012. The future conditions subindex grew from 51.8 to 52.6 versus Q1 2012 and by 1 point versus Q4 2012.

Households' assessment of the current economic situation is pessimistic as compared to the previous quarter - 22.7 points against 26.7 points in Q4 2012 and 28.1 points in Q1 2012. Revenue subindex was estimated at 32.9 points against 41.4 points in the previous quarter and 39.7 points in Q1 2012 Ј®¤ .

Employment subindex dropped from 53.7 to 52.8 in Q1 2013 versus Q1 2012 and by 51 versus Q4 2012. Expectations from the revenue subindex for the following quarter is more optimistic - 49.9 points against 47.1 points in Q4 2011, but more pessimistic as compared to the subindex of Q1 2012 (53.7 points).

To note, since Q1 2013 the economic activity index has been renamed into business activity index. Alongside with this, the methodology of calculation of all the three composite indices - business activity, business climate and consumer confidence has also been changed. From now on the CBA will publish these indices not in % (like it was before 2013), but in averaged points in line with the respondents' estimations.

For instance, business activity is calculated on the basis of estimation of the production output in the current and following quarters, expectations of reserves and demand for production and services; business climate is calculated on the basis of estimation of the economic situation in the current and following quarters; consumer confidence is a diffusion index calculated on the basis of averaging the points given by the respondents to 6 questions. The points may vary from 0 to 100, with 0 being the evidence of deteriorating expectations of all the respondents, 100 - improvement and 50 - stable situation (when half of the respondents expect improvement and the other half - deterioration). The CBA qualifies the range of 45- 55 points to be the stable level.

The Central Bank has been conducting the poll since 2005 to assess the current economic situation and expectation. The method of calculation is based on the US Conference Board and German IFO standards.
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