Tuesday, December 10 2013 18:03
CB forecasts 6.5-7% inflation by the end of 2013
ArmInfo. By the end of 2013 inflation in Armenia will drop to 6.5-7% to reach the 4 1.5% target level in the first half of 2014, says the fiscal policy of Armenia's Central Bank for Q4 2012.
The risk that inflation will grow is equal to the risk that it may fall. The key risks come from slow economic recovery in the world and low demand in Armenia. If they appear, the CB will try to bring inflation down to the target level.
The key reason why today inflation is lower than was expected is that economic growth is slower than it was forecast to be. The low inflation environment formed in Q4 2013 as a result will push inflation even further down.
In Q3 2013, considering the effect the July rise in energy tariff had on domestic prices, the CB expected 12-month inflation to grow to 8.5%. In reality it made up 8.2%.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Nov 2013 inflation made up 0.9%, in Jan-Nov 2013 4.5%. In Nov 2013 as compared with Nov 2012 inflation made up 6.6%, in Jan-Nov 2013 as compared with Jan-Nov 2012 5.8%. In Nov 2013 inflation on the food market made up 1.6% due to 3.3-22% growth in fish, vegetable and potato prices. During the same period nonfood prices grew by 0.5%, service tariffs by 0.1%.