Wednesday, January 15 2014 17:08
HSBC expects global economic growth of 2.6% in 2014
ArmInfo. HSBC experts expect global economic growth of 2.6% this year, a moderate increase from 2% in 2013. Developed markets could expand by 1.8% and emerging markets by 4.9%.
According to the experts, disinflationary pressures in parts of the developed world have raised the spectre of deflation. This leaves central bankers with a troubling dilemma: should they consider tightening monetary policy in response to better economic data or keep policy loose to ward off the threat of deflation? This is the backdrop to our key calls for the year.
The experts think the ten-year Treasury yield will fall to 2.1% because of the persistence of low inflation, debt overhangs, and an improving US fiscal position.
They see global equities rising by around 6%, and high single digit returns overall, once dividends are included. Returns will be driven by decent earnings growth, rather than multiple expansion. We are overweight Europe, underweight the US and Japan, and selective in emerging markets. In FX, we think the dollar rally will continue and broaden, as the Federal Reserve continues its exit strategy, and as economic vulnerabilities in the Eurozone and the UK eat into euro and sterling strength.
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