Wednesday, March 26 2014 19:12

Central Bank forecasts 5.4-6.1% economic growth in Armenia for 2014


ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) forecasts 5.4-6.1% economic growth in Armenia for 2014 mostly due to growth in industry and services. According to the CBA's monetary policy program for Q1 2014, the probability of the given forecast is 90%. With the same probability the CBA expects the country's economic growth to be 5.1-6.1% for 2015 and 4.9-6.1% for 2016. With 30% probability the CBA forecasts 4.3-7.2% real growth of GDP for 2014, 3.3-7.9% for 2015 and 2.8-8.1% for 2016.

Within the forecast period, the economic growth will stabilize in 5% to 6% due to sustainable growth rates of private consumption and slow restoration of private investment rates.

In 2014 industry will grow by 6-8% due to retention of the current global prices of non-ferrous metals and supposed growth in mining industry and metallurgy thanks to the development of the Teghut deposit. The output of food, beverages, pharmaceuticals, construction materials and energy is also expected to grow. Within the forecast period, the industrial growth will stabilize in 5.7% to 6.3%.

Construction will rise by 6.5-8.5% due to the current road construction operations, renovation of irrigation and water supply systems, modernization of the northern border points and the Yerevan Metro. Within the forecast period, the construction growth will stabilize in 1% to 3% as a result of restoration of the balance between the supply and demand.

Services are expected to grow by 5-6.5% due to supposed growth in state and private expenditures.

Agriculture is expected to grow by 4.5-6.5% due to the rise in plant growing and cattle breeding.

According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Jan-Dec 2013 versus Jan-Dec 2012 GDP in Armenia increased by 3.5% to 4.3 trillion AMD. In particular, industrial output grew by 6.8% to 1.2 trillion AMD, services increased by 3.6% to 1 trillion AMD, agriculture grew by 7.1% to 918.6 bln AMD, and construction dropped by 8.1% to 442.3 bln AMD.
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