Monday, June 9 2014 19:09
Central Bank of Armenia reduces economic growth forecast for 2014
ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has reduced the economic growth forecast for 2014 from 5.4%-6.1% to 4.1%-4.8% due to slow recovery of the world economy and the situation in some CIS countries, including Russia. CBA Chairman Arthur Javadyan introduced the monetary policy for 2013 and the revised forecasts for 2014 at the Armenian Parliament on 9 June.
According to the CBA monetary policy for Q2 2014, the given forecast is possible by 30%. With the same probability, the mega-regulator anticipates a 5.6%-6.6% economic growth in 2015 and 3.6%-4.8% in 2016. By 90%, the real GDP growth forecast is as follows: 2.6%-5.6% for 2014, 4.3%-8.4% for 2015 and 2.1%- 6.9%.
The industrial growth forecast for 2014 will total 3.7%-5.2% (versus previously announced 6%-8%) due to slackening growth in the mining and metallurgical industry following the slump of world prices of ferrous metals and the Teghout deposit exploitation terms. The food, construction materials, and drinks production growth forecasts are reduced as well due to the slackening growth of the foreign and domestic demand. The industrial growth forecast is 5.7%-6.3%.
In the construction sector, the CBA forecasts a 2.5%-4.5% growth versus previously announced 6.5%-8.5% growth due to the ongoing road construction activities, irrigation and water supply systems repairs, and modernization of the northern frontier points and the Yerevan underground. Due to the restored balance of supply and demand, the growth in the construction sector will range between 1%-02% versus previously announced 1%-3%.
In the sector of services, the CBA forecasts a 4.2%-5.7% growth (versus 5%-6.5%) due to the supposed growth of the state and private expenditures. The growth will stabilize in the given sector and will be within 4.5%-5%.
The CBA left unchanged the forecast for the agricultural growth - 4.5%-6.5% due to plant growing, cattle breeding, expansion of greenhouses and cultivated lands. The growth will stabilize within 5%-6.5%.
By data of the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Jan-Dec 2013 versus the same period of 2012, GDP of Armenia grew 3.5% to 4.3 trillion drams. Industrial produced grew 6.8% to 1.2 trillion drams. Services sector grew 7.1% to 918 billion drams, amid 8.1% decline in the construction sector to 442.3 billion drams.
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