Monday, June 16 2014 18:55

Central Bank of Armenia expects growth rates of private transfers to slow down in 2014


ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia expects the growth rates of private transfers of individuals to slow down in 2014. The private transfers will grow by 4.5- 6.5% in 2014. Before that, the CBA reduced its forecast for the growth rates of individuals' transfers to 7-9% versus the previously forecast 8-10%.

According to the CBA's monetary policy program for Q2 2014, the changes in the CBA's forecast are due to the slowdown of the Russian GDP growth expected in 2014. The previous forecast of the CBA said that the Russian GDP was to grow by 0.6% in 2014, but now the GDP growth is expected to make up 0.4%.

The CBA says that in 2013 the net inflow of non-commercial transfers of individuals rose to 11.3% versus 8.9% in 2012 ($1.5 billion in absolute terms). In the meantime, the inflow of private non-commercial transfers to the country amounted to $1.9 bln (up 10.8% versus 2012), and the outflow grew by 10.9% to $324.2 mln.

The source says that the year over year growth of money transfers to Armenia was due to the rise in the transfers from Germany (by 32.2% to $15.6 mln), the USA (by 23% to $82 mln), France (by 22.5% to $14.5 mln), Russia (by 11% to $ 1.6 bln), Kazakhstan (by 5.3% to $23.7 mln). The transfers from Ukraine fell by 10.5% to $17 mln. Those from China dropped over 2-fold to $1.4 mln. Most of the non-commercial transfers to Armenia were from Russia (86%), the USA (4.4%), Kazakhstan (1.3%), Ukraine (0.9%), Germany (0.8%) and France (0.8%).

More than half of the private transfers from Armenia were sent to Russia ($180.3 mln, 9.6% y-o-y growth). Transfers to Ukraine dropped by 4% to $14.8 mln.

The major part of the net inflow (92.3% or $1.4 bln) fell on Russia (11.4% y-o-y growth). The unfavorable balance of non-commercial transfers of individuals was fixed in the transfers from the UAE ($150 thsd), China ($10.4 mln), and Turkey ($2.5 mln).

To note, for the moment there are 11 payment and settlement systems in Armenia: MoneyGram, Bystraya Pochta, BLIZKO, Avers, IntelExpress, InterExpress, Private Money, Sigue Money Transfer, TANDEM Transfers, and the largest actors are UNIStream and Anelik.