Wednesday, June 25 2014 19:14
Central Bank expects Armenia's 2014 state budget deficit in GDP to be lower than the targeted indicator
ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) expects Armenia's 2014 state budget deficit in GDP to be lower than the targeted indicator, which is 2.34%.
The CBA's monetary policy program for Q2 2014 says that the CBA has also revised the forecast for the revenue-to-GDP ratio. In 2014 this index will make up 24.5% versus the previously expected 24%. In 2015 and 2016 the state budget revenues will drop to 24.3% and 24.1%, respectively (versus the previously expected 23.6% and 23.9%). In 2017 the budget deficit in GDP will grow to 24.3%.
The annual expenditure-to-GDP ratios have also been changed. In 2014 this index will make up 26.1% versus the previously expected 26.4%. In 2015 it will grow to 26.3% (versus the previously expected 25.6%). In 2016 the index will drop to 25.9% (no changes as comp0ared with the previous forecast). In 2017 the state budget expenditure will be similar to the index of 2014. The CBA says that the state budget program for 2014 has been adjusted. Now it is to save the targeted expenditure by 2.4%. In the meantime, no changes in the tax-to-GDP ratio are expected and the state budget expenditure is expected to rise by 1.6 pct points. Both capital and current expenses will grow.
The source says that the share of interest debt payments in GDP will total 1.36% in 2014 versus the previously expected 1.34%. In 2015 and 2016 that share will drop to 1.07% and 1.06% versus the previously expected 1.17% and 1.18%, respectively. In 2017 the index will be retained at 1.06%.
The fiscal position in GDP will make up 0.7% in 2014 versus the previously expected 1.3%. In 2015 the given index will grow to positive 1% (versus the previously expected negative 0.4%). In 2016 that index will drop to negative 0.3% (versus the previously expected positive 0.1%). In 2017 it will rise to negative 0.1%.
To recall, in 2013 the state budget deficit made up 0.2% versus 1.5% in 2012. In 2013 the revenue-to-GDP ratio was 23.9% versus 23.7% in 2012, and the expenditure-to-GDP ratio was 24.1% versus 25.2% in 2012. The share of interest debt payments in GDP made up 1.09% in 2013 versus 1.01% in 2012, and the fiscal position in GDP made up 1% in 2013.
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