Monday, September 29 2014 18:35
Central Bank reduces Armenia's economic growth forecast from 4.1-4.8% to 3.6-4.2%
ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has revised Armenia's economic growth forecast for 2014 for the second time. According to the CBA's monetary policy program for Q3 2014, in 2014 Armenia's economic growth will make up 3.6-4.2% versus the previously forecast 4.1-4.8%.
The given forecast has 30% probability. The CBA expects the economic growth of Armenia to make up 4.9-5.7% in 2015 and 4.2-5.2% in 2015. By 90% probability the GDP real growth forecasts are as follows: 2.7-5% for 2014, 3.4-7.2% for 2015 and 2.5-6.9% for 2016.
In the meantime, the CBA has reduced the industry growth forecast for 2014 from 3.7-5.2% to 1.3-2.3% due to the growth slowdown in the mining industry because of the drop of the world prices of non-ferrous metals. The growth rates of food industry, construction materials and beverages are also expected to slow down due to deceleration of the growth of the foreign and domestic demand.
The construction growth will make up 0.5-1.5% (versus the previously forecast 2.5- 4.5%). This year the growth in construction will be due to the current road construction operations, rehabilitation of the irrigation and water supply systems, modernization of the northern border points and the Yerevan Metro.
The growth in agriculture is expected to slow down from 4.5-6.5% to 2.3-3.3% due to the harvestless summer.
The growth in services is expected to accelerate due to the unprecedented activeness in trade, tourism, and air transport. The CBA expects 5.2-6.2% growth versus the previously forecast 4.2-5.7%.
The National Statistical Service of Armenia reports that in Jan-Dec 2013 Armenia's GDP rose by 3.5% to 4.3 trillion AMD. In particular, the industrial output grew by 6.8% to 1.2 trillion AMD, services grew by 3.6% to 1 trillion AMD, while construction dropped by 8.1% to 442.3 bln AMD.
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