Wednesday, November 26 2014 17:10
Central Bank reduces forecasts for Armenia's labor market for 2014-2017
ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has reduced the forecasts for the Armenian labor market for 2014-2017. The CBA expects the nominal salary growth rates to slow down and the unemployment to rise. According to the CBA's monetary policy program for Q4 2014, this year the nominal salary is expected to grow by 8.2% versus the previously expected 11.6%. In 2015 the wages will rise by 8%, and in 2016-2017 - by 7%.
The new forecast of the CBA is based on the changes in the expected economic growth and actual slowdown in the salary growth rates despite the forecasts. The salary growth expected for 2014 will exceed the average annual indices registered over the past few years. This will be due to the growth of the minimum salary threshold - to 50 thsd AMD, increase of remuneration of labor at private companies as a result of introduction of the funded pension system, as well as growth in wages in the state sector, which mostly fell on Q3 2014. In 2015 the salary growth will be conditioned by the salary rise in the state sector, and one more enhancement of the minimum salary threshold. In 2016-2017 wages will grow due to the expected acceleration of economic growth, stabilization of inflation in the governmental policy aimed at raising the wages.
According to the new forecast, the average unemployment amid the decelerated rates of economic growth at the yearend of 2014 versus 2013 will rise by 0.6% to 16.8%. By the previous forecast, the average unemployment at the yearend of 2014 would have risen by 0.3 pct points to 16.5%.
The Armenian National Statistical Service of Armenia says that in September 2014 the average salary in Armenia made up 171,254 AMD (up 8% versus Sept 2013, up 2.7% for Q3 alone). The wages in the state sector rose by 10.8% to 154,565 AMD (up 8.35 for Q3 alone). In the private sector the average salary totaled 194,125 AMD (up 4.8% versus Sept 2013, down 3% for Q3 alone).
In 2013 unemployment in Armenia made up 16.2% versus 17.3% in 2012. In Q1 2014, unemployment made up 17.8%, in Q2 - 17.5%. In early 2014 the manpower resources in the country totaled 2189.1 thsd (down 3.2% versus early 2013). The economically active population of Armenia numbered 1388.4 thsd (down 2.1% versus early 2013).
In September 2014, the number of job-seekers totaled 70.8 thsd (up 5.8% versus Sept 2013), and the number of unemployed was 65.4 thsd (up 17% versus Sept 2013). The number of unemployed women was 47.2 thsd or 72.2% (up 14%), and unemployed men - 18.2 thsd (up 25.5%). In terms of unemployment, Yerevan is in the lead with 15.2 thsd unemployed citizens. Shirak Marz ranks next with 10 thsd. 7,000 unemployed people are aged 16-24, and 8.6 thsd are aged 25-30.
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