Forecast: In 2015 there is possible to occur both economic downturn of 0.5%, as well as growth of up to 2% in Armenia

The GDP dynamics of Armenia according to the results of 2015 may range within the 

indicators of minus 0.5 up to plus 2%. This forecast was made by Ashot Tavadyan, Professor, Doctor of Economics at the press-conference held on 16 July, 2015.

 

"The growth of 2% can be reached only if the general economic situation would be stable, then the year would remain favourable for the agriculture sector and if the Government would not revise the priorities of the goals set", - says the Economist. According to him, under the condition of global economic uncertainties it would be appropriate to present intervallic GDP projections, since it is less probable to have precise coincidence of actual and forecasted data in the future. 

 

According to the World Bank (WB) recent prognosis, the economic growth of Armenia in 2015 would make 0.8% against expected 3.3%. The International Monetary Fund expects stagnation in Armenia economy instead of 1% downturn forecasted before. The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) decreased its prognosis from the zero level to -1.5%. The Asian Development Bank projects growth of the Armenian economy of up to 1.6% in 2015 and the Eurasian Development Bank - of 0.8%. The Fitch International Rating Agency forecasted moderate recession of Armenian Economy in its recent review in 2015, and the Mood's - growth of 2.3%.

 

According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank of RA for 2015, the economic growth would increase from 1.6 to 2.6% compared to the slow-down of 0.4 to 2% forecasted before. In 2016, the path of economic growth would remain almost at the same level - 1.4-2.8%, but would gradually increase in 2017 from 3.4 to 5%. The law On the State Budget of Armenia for 2015 the real growth of GDP is planned at the level of 4.1%, the inflation level is approved at the level of 4% (+1.5%), the GDP nominal volume - AMD 4867.5 billion and the GDP deflator - 3.3%. According to the data of the Armenian Statistic 

Service the economic activity of Armenia in May 2015 increased for 7.1% compared to the May, 2014 of 2.8% and for 2.7% during January - May, 2015 compared to similar period of 2014.