EBRD to upgrade its forecast for Armenia s GDP growth to positive 1-3% for 2015

ArmInfo. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will upgrade its forecast for Armenia's GDP growth by positive 1-3% for 2015. Mark Davis, Head of EBRD Yerevan Resident Office, expressed this preliminary estimation at the press conference on October 14. He recalled that according to the forecast made in May, 1.5% slowdown was anticipated, and this was the most pessimistic forecast compared to the anticipations of other international organizations. He added that the final forecasts of Armenia's macroeconomic indicators will be published at the end of October.

According to M. Davis the previous forecast considered the awaited negative influence of the complex economic situation in Russia, the economy of which was expected to show 4% slowdown. Among other factors, which affected the previous negative forecast, Davis noted the recorded decline of investments and transfers, decrease of buying activity of the population and devaluation of national currencies of the region's countries. However, during the year positive change was recorded and the Armenian economy demonstrated firmness to these challenges. Particularly, during the current year an unprecedented growth of gross agriculture output was registered, as well as significant growth of mining industry, due to the exploitation of a new mine. As a result, the economic activity by the end of August 2015 showed annual growth by 4.2%, and in Jan-Aug a 4.1% growth was registered versus the same period of 2014.

However these factors have one-time nature and the country should be ready for regional stresses in the future perspective, the Head Of EBRD Yerevan Resident Office emphasized.

Earlier, International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised Armenia's 2015 GDP growth up to 2,5% with further slow down up to 2.2% in 2016.  According to the World Bank (WB) latest forecast, the economic growth of Armenia in 2015 would make 0.8% against expected 3.3%. The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) decreased its forecast from the zero level to - 1.5%. The Asian Development Bank projects growth of the Armenian economy of up to 1.6% in 2015 and the Eurasian Development Bank - of 0.8%. The Fitch International Rating Agency revised its forecast of moderate recession of Armenian Economy for 1.5% growth in 2015, and the Moody's - growth of 2.3%. 

According to the Armenian Central Bank's updated forecast, the economic growth in the country will increase to 2.8%-3.6% versus previously announced slackening to 1.6%- 2.6%. In 2016, the economic growth rates will not change - 2.5%-3.4%. In 2017, GDP will gradually increase to 3.5%-4.5%.

According to the Law on the State Budget of Armenia 2015, real GDP growth is envisaged at 4.1%, with 4% (+1.5%) inflation. The nominal volume of GDP will total 4867.5bln drams amid 3.3% GDP deflator.  According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, the economic activity in Armenia grew by annual 4.2% for Jan-July 2015, and by 9.2% in July only.