IMF expects GDP growth rates in Armeniato slow down to 2,25% in 2015

ArmInfo. In 2015 the GDP growth rates in Armenia will slow down to 2,25%, according to the International Monetary Fund's Regional Economic Outlook for Middle East and Central Asia. The survey was released on October 21 in Dubai and on October 23 in Almaty.  

The IMF experts say this is the result of the recession in Russia and ruble depreciation, which seriously affected the countries through the mechanisms of money transfer and foreign trade. 

Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will face a similar situation, because they are also oil importers.  According to the IMF specialists, to prevent further growth of national debt and to stimulate economic growth, the oil importers should enhance the quality of state expenditures and resume the budget consolidation, at the same time retaining the capital expenditures and public expenditures. 

The IMF experts expect the growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia to reach approximately 3%, which is by 1 point lower than in 2014. The economic activity is expected to gradually grow and reach 4% in 2016 due to the supposed improvement of the situation in the key trade partner countries such as Russia and in the partner countries within the Euro zone.

Earlier in September, the IMF upgraded the outlook for Armenia's economic growth in 2015 from stagnation to 2.5% growth (2.2% for 2016). ADB forecasted a 1.6% GDP growth for Armenia in 2015.  According to the World Bank (WB) latest forecast, the economic growth of Armenia in 2015 would make 0.8% against expected 3.3%. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) downgraded its forecast from the zero level to negative 1.5%.

The Fitch International Rating Agency upgraded its outlook from moderate recession to 1.5% growth, and the Moody's expects 2.3% growth. According to the Armenian Central Bank's updated forecast, the economic growth in the country will accelerate to 2.8%-3.6% versus the previously expected deceleration to1.6%- 2.6%.

According to the Law on the State Budget of Armenia 2015, real GDP growth is envisaged at 4.1%, with 4% (+1.5%) inflation. The nominal GDP will total 4867.5bln drams amid 3.3% GDP deflator. According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Jan-Jul 2015, the economic activity in Armenia grew by 4.2% versus Jan-Jul 2014 (9.2% in July 2015).