Bloomberg forecast: Armenia by its 2.5% GDP growth will be ahead of Azerbaijan but will yield to Georgia

Bloomberg's experts foresee GDP drop in 5 countries, in Russia by 0.5%, in Ecuador-by 0.5%, in Greece by 1.8% and in Brazil by 2.5% (with 75% recession). Oil-rich Venezuela will contract by 3.3% this year, the worst forecast of any of the 93 countries in the analysis, followed by junk-rated Brazil, debt-laden Greece and commodities- ravaged Russia. In Greece the economy will shrink by 1.8 percent, making the hundreds of billions of dollars Greece still owes that much harder to pay off.  Add to that the strain on its borders of migrants fleeing violence in Syria.

 

Russia will stay in negative territory after contracting about 3.6 percent in the first nine months of last year, but will also turn the corner on what will likely be its longest recession in over two decades. Sanctions from the U.S. and European Union as well as low oil prices, which account for 40 percent of the government's budget revenues, took their toll.  Bloomberg forecasts 0% stagnation for Argentina with recession by 60%.  Japan and Finland will also show low indicators of GDP growth each by 1% (the first will have recession by 30%), Croatia will have 1.1% (22% recession), Switzerland- 1.2% (20% recession). Finland suffers from its geographic proximity and economic reliance to Russia while Switzerland is still reeling from a surprise central bank decision to drop its currency cap, which crippled exports and tourism.

 

According to Bloomberg's forecast, India is the leader in the list with GDP growth by 7.4%. Vietnam and Bangladesh go next (each by 6.6%), followed by China (6.5% with 12% recession), Sri Lanka (6.4%), Kenya and Panama (6.1% each), Philippines (6%) and Uganda (5.6%). Dominic Republic is at the end of list of the first ten with forecasted growth of GDP by 5.4%. 

 

To note, World Bank forecasts a 2.2% GDP growth for Armenia in 2016 which is higher than in Azerbaijan (0.8%) and lower than in Georgia (3%). Compared to 2015 World Bank forecasts insignificant slowdown of economic growth from 2.5% and in Azerbaijan more slowdown of rates from 2% while in Georgia it forecasts accelerating of growth (from 2.5%). International Monetary Fund changed the forecast on Armenia's economy growth in 2015 from stagnation to 2.5% growth with further slowdown by 2.2% in 2016. EBRD improved the forecast on Armenia's GDP dynamics in 2015 from 1.5% decline to 2.3% growth   with slowdown of growth to 2% in 2016.

 

To recall, the Central Bank of Armenia has upgraded its economic growth forecast for Armenia from the previous 2.8- 3.6% to 3.2-3.9%, according to the CBA's monetary policy program for Q4 2015. In 2016, the economic growth will slow down to 1.6-2.7% due to the slackening of growth in gross agricultural output and industry, as well as retention of low expenditures as opposed to the growth in domestic and foreign demand in the light of the expected increase in the transfers from Russia, certain economy growth in the partner states of Armenia and dampening of the monetary terms.  

 

According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Jan-Nov 2015 as compared to the same period of 2014, economic growth in Armenia fell from 3.8% to 2.9%.