AMD starts 2017 with devaluation

ArmInfo. During the last   week of December 2017, transactions on the forex interbank market of  Armenia decreased for 33%, following 60,3% growth growth  a week  before. In the meantime, the purchase and sale of USD and EUR  demonstrated  negative  dynamics amid the subsiding interest in RUR  operations.  As a result, during the reported  week AMD its position  against USD at  484 AMD/$1, depreciating against EUR from 504 to 505  AMD/1EUR .Earlier, in Jan- Sept 2016, AMD appreciated against USD  from 482 to 474 AMD/USD1, depreciating against EUR from 529 to 532  AMD/1EUR, and against RUR from 6.9 to 7.5 AMD/1RUR. In October AMD  devaluated against USD to 476 AMD/USD1, revaluated against EUR to 521  AMD/1EUR, while the AMD/RUR exchange rate remained unchanged - 7.5  AMD/1RUR.  This tendency continued in November.

 In the first 10 days  of December the devaluation of AMD to USD  continued, within a simultaneous giving up to EUR and RUR, but in   the second decade AMD showed appreciation to EUR, keeping its  depreciation to RUR and keeping the rate in respect to USD, but in  the third decade AMD showed a tendency of slow devaluation to EUR,  keeping the positions to USD and RUR. In the first decade of 2017 a  sustainable devaluation of AMD was observed,  being at that more  sharp to  EUR than to USD and RUR. 

Since the beginning of last  year the foreign exchange market showed  signs of life rarely, making one at a time transaction between March  and May: USD100 thousand in March, USD2.950 mln in April and USD800  thousand in May, after which it was passive. In Jan-Oct 2016, the  Central Bank bought USD on the foreign exchange market in April  (USD2.4 mln), June (USD50.2 mln), August ($19.8 mln), and September  (USD28.8mln), October ( USD 50.8 mln at 475,47/1USD rate) and sold in  January and February (USD53.1 mln and USD 41.5mln, at AMD484,69 /$1  and  AMD 492,59/$1e respectively).  The press office of the Central  Bank of Armenia has told ArmInfo that during the period of  Dec  26-30, 2017,  the total amount of the transactions on the forex  interbank market during the current week formed $14.800 mln (versus  $22.073 mln a week before), and the average exchange rate was 484.64  AMD/$1 (versus former  482.01). 

At the same time, on the intrabank market USD purchase changed its  dynamics from 44% growth to 100% dropdown, within  a similar change  of trend in respect to  EUR purchase from  55% growth to 42%  dropdown. USD sales speeded up from 4% to 23%,  and the EUR  transactions increase  tendency slowed down from 23% to 11%.

At this, the intrabank RUR transactions with different dynamics  sharply increased: the purchase speeded up from % to 72%, and the  sales changed 3% dropdown to 33% growth. 

 As a result, the purchase totaled $117  mln at the average exchange  rate of 482.40 AMD/$1, 8.1  mln EUR at 502.76. AMD/1EUR, and 1.9 bln  RUR at 7.84 AMD/1RUR.  The sales amounted to $147.6 mln at the   average rate of 484.09 AMD/$1, 17.5 mln EUR at 508.24 AMD/1EUR, and  455.4  mln RUR at 8.03 AMD/1RUR. 

According to the source, during the previous week (December 19-24),   Armenian banks provided AMD loans worth 41.9  bln AMD and USD loans  worth $116.9  mln. 

During the reported week the USD and AMD based loans trend changed  from dropdown to increase.  Particularly, the volume of  of AMD  increased for 7%, and the amount of USD loans rose for 67%, meanwhile  a week ago the value  of AMD and USD based  loans showed dropdown for  14% and 24% respectively . 

To recall, in 2015, on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia  AMD weakened against USD from 477 to 482 AMD/USD1 on average and  strengthened against EUR from 571.5 to 529 AMD/1EUR and against  Russian ruble from 8.2 to 6.9 AMD/1 RUR.  Between December 14 and 28,  the Central Bank made almost daily interventions.  AMD depreciated  amid decline of foreign trade turnover (by 20.6%), while import  dropped more significantly (by 26.5%) than export (by 3.9%) as well  as the decline in transfer inflow to Armenia more than by 30%, and  this happened in conditions of low buying capacity of the population  and low economic activity in the country.  Since early 2016, AMD  started depreciating again on the retail foreign exchange market of  Armenia to 496AMD/USD1, however since March it strengthened and stood  at 482 AMD/1USD by March 25. In overall in H1 2016 AMD appreciated to  477 AMD/USD1 from 482 AMD/USD1, devaluating in mid Feb (to 496  AMD/USD1 from 482AMD/USD1 on Feb 12), in the first decade of April  (to 484.5AMD/USD1 from 479 AMD/USD1), in mid May (to 480.5 AMD/USD1  from 479 AMD/USD1-on May 12), in the early and late June (to 479  AMD/USD1 from 478 on June 3 and to 477 AMD/USD1 from 476 AMD/USD1 on  June 30). In July AMD appreciated to 476 AMD/USD1 only in the  beginning of the third decade, after which it stood at the initial  level of 477 AMD/USD1. In August, AMD demonstrated revaluation - 475  AMD/USD1 by August 31 and stood at this level in the first ten days  of September, after which it further revaluated.  Thus, by September  30, AMD appreciated against USD and EUR to 474 AMD/USD1 and 532  AMD/1EUR, respectively. Along with it, AMD depreciated against RUR to  7.5 AMD/1RUR. In October AMD devaluated against USD to 476 AMD/1USD,  revaluated against EUR to 521 AMD/1EUR, while the AMD/RUR exchange  rate remained unchanged - 7.5 AMD/1RUR.  This trend continued in  November. By November 30, AMD depreciated against USD to 480.5  AMD/$1, at the same time appreciating against EUR to 511 AMD/1EUR and  appreciating against RUR at 7.4 AMD/1RUR. In early December AMD kept  depreciating against USD, at the same time weakening against EUR and  RUR, but in mid-December AMD appreciated against EUR and continued  weakening against RUR, retaining its position against USD.  AMD    started the year of 2017 with a devaluation to USD - from 484 to 485  AMD/ USD 1, to EUR -  from 505 to 511 AMD/EUR 1, and to RUR - from 8  to 8,1 AMD /RUR 1.