Monday, November 5 2018 11:49

ArmInfo.Economic growth by the end of 2018, most likely, will be 4.9-5.9%. This was stated by Atom Janjughazyan, Acting Minister of Finance of Armenia to ArmInfo.   Meanwhile, in September of this year the Ministry of Finance of  Armenia upgraded the forecast from the previous 4.5%, set in the law  "On the state budget for 2018", to 6.5%.

According to the financial expert, the revision of expectations is  due to a decline in indicators in the agrosector. Nevertheless, as  Atom Janjughazyan stressed, the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance  continue to correlate with the forecasts of the International  Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

To note, in the middle of this year the economic growth in Armenia  encouraged serious optimism about the future growth of the country's  GDP, while maintaining its inertial character from last year's figure  of 7.5%.  However, since August, economic growth began to slow down,  and in September this trend continued..  According to operational  data, economic activity in Armenia in August and September slowed  sharply due to the decline in agriculture. The rate of decline is  observed in the mining sector and in exports. As a result, many  experts questioned the validity of the revised forecasts for GDP  growth.

Meanwhile, on September 27, presenting the draft budget for 2019, the  head of the Ministry of Finance announced about growth expectations  to 6.5%, and the Central Bank of Armenia raised the range of the  forecast for GDP growth for 2018 from the previous 4.6-6.5% to the  current 5.6-6.9%. According to the World Bank's forecast for 2018  updated in October 2018, Armenia's GDP growth will be 5.3%, with a  slowdown to 4% in 2019-2020. As stated in the October review of the  world economy of the IMF "Challenges to Steady Growth" (World  Economic Outlook), the Fund raised its forecast for economic growth  in Armenia for 2018 from 3.4% to 6%.

The nominal GDP of Armenia in 2019, according to the draft budget for  the next year, will grow by about 560 billion - from the expected by  the end of 2018 6.193.0 billion AMD($ 12,752.6 million) to 6,756.2  billion AMD ($ 13,717.5 million) pledged in the project. GDP growth,  according to the document, will be 4.9%, instead of 4.5% laid down in  the approved state budget for the 2018. The following year's  consolidated budget in terms of revenues is estimated at 1.533.6  billion AMD (without revenues from inter- budget transfers) instead  of 1.333.5 billion AMD in 2018, and in expenses - 1.685.2 billion AMD  (without receipts from inter-budget transfers), against 1.500.5  billion AMD this year, the deficit is about 151.6 billion drams or  2.2% of GDP, against 156.9 billion AMD envisaged in 2018 or 2.7% of  GDP, but revised to 103.5 billion AMD (1 7% / GDP). Sources of  financing the budget deficit will be 54.2 billion AMD- domestic  sources, and 97.4 billion AMD- external. Community budgets for 2019  are estimated to be 138.9 billion AMD (including official grants from  the state budget) in the line of income, and 138.9 billion AMD of  expenses. This year, a figure of 130.1 billion AMD was set. 12-month  inflation is expected at 4% with an acceptable limit of fluctuations  of +/- 1.5%. In 2019, capital spending from the current 2.4% of GDP  will grow to 3.2% of GDP. State treasury revenues will make 1,490.6  billion AMD (1.354.8 billion AMD this year) or 22.1% of GDP, of which  tax revenues and state fees will be 1, 399.2 billion AMD or 20.7% of  GDP, instead of 1.255.8 billion AMD or 20.3% of GDP in 2018, expenses  were 1 trillion 642.2 billion AMD against the current 1,458.3 billion  AMD. Current expenditures will amount to 1,422.7 billion AMD (21.1% /  GDP), instead of current 1, 312.3 billion AMD (21.2% / GDP). The  deflator index will be 104%, against 104.4% predicted by the end of  this year. In 2019, official grants amounting to 39 billion drams are  expected from international structures and foreign states, instead of  35.8 billion drams in 2018. Other budget revenues will be 52.4  billion drams next year, instead of 23.9 billion drams for the  current year, official grants - 39 billion. The ratio of investments  to GDP in 2018 is projected at 23.3% instead of 23.6% in 2019,  exports in 2019 are expected to reach 41%, against the projected  38,7% in 2018.