ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia once again improved the unemployment forecast for 2018 - from the previous 16.6% to the current 16.3% (according to the old methodology). In the medium term, the Central Bank expects an annual reduction in the unemployment rate by 0.1-0.2 percentage points - to 15.8%.
This is noted in the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Program (monetary policy) for the fourth quarter of 2018, published on November 27, where the decline in unemployment in 2018 is due to the expected economic growth rates in the range of 4.6-5.1% stimulating investment by structural reforms.
For 2017, the Central Bank of Armenia predicted an unemployment rate of 17.9% with a subsequent decrease in the medium term annually by 0.3-0.5 percentage points - to 17.4-17.6%. This forecast of the Central Bank for 2017 almost coincided with the indicator actually recorded for the year - 17.8%.
According to statistics, in 2016 the unemployment rate in Armenia was 18%, against 18.5% - 2015. Results of the second quarter of 2018 by level Statistical Committee published unemployment in Armenia in September, indicating the data calculated both by the old method - 15.7% and by the new one - 20.2%, against 17.8% and 20.5% respectively in the second quarter of 2017. The new method of calculation does not take into account those employed in the household.
Note that according to the updated in October of this year. the WB's forecast, the poverty level (with a parity of purchasing power (PPP) of $ 5.5) can reach 38% in 2018 with a decline to 35.9% in 2019, and in the calculation of PPP of $ 3.2, the poverty level can decrease in 2018-2019 from 9, 8% to 8.6%. According to the early forecast of the World Bank, the unemployment rate in Armenia in 2018 was expected to be 18.1%.