Monday, January 21 2019 15:25

ArmInfo. By January 1, 2019, the Armenian state debt amounted to $ 6.923 billion (3.349 trillion drams), slowing down the y-o-y growth rate from 14% to 2.2%, due to a  significant slowdown in the growth of external debt - from 14.3% to  0.7% and growth of the domestic debt - from 12.6% to 8.6%.

This occurs against the background of the expected slowdown in economic  growth to 5.2-5.3% for 2018 from the actual 7.5% for 2017. According  to the RA Ministry of Finance, provided by ArmInfo, as of January 1,  2019, the external state debt amounted to $ 5.533 billion (2.677  trillion drams) or 79.9%, and the internal debt - $ 1.390 billion  (672.4 billion drams) or 20.1%.

Only in the Q4 of 2018, the national debt of Armenia increased by  2.7% due to the growth of foreign debt by 2.2%, while the growth of  domestic debt was 4.5%. A year earlier, in the Q4 of 2017, the growth  rate of domestic debt was lower than the growth in foreign debt -  3.2% and 8.4%, respectively, which increased the total national debt  by 7.4%.

In the structure of external debt, 90.1% or $ 4.983 billion accounted  for the government, and the remaining 9.9% or $ 550 million - for the  Central Bank, versus 89% and 11% a year earlier. Moreover, the  external debt of the government slowed down the y-o-y growth rate  from 13.8% to 1.8%, while the debt of the Central Bank unfolded the  trend from 19.2% growth to 8.6% recession. In the Q4 of 2018 alone,  the Central Bank's external debt decreased by 4.5%, while the  government's external debt grew by 3.1%, while a year earlier, the  growth of government debt was more significant (9.6%), and the  decline in external debt of the Central Bank - a meager (1.6%).

The degree of foreign debt coverage in gold and foreign exchange  reserves in 2018 decreased to 40.7% from 42.1% in 2017, amid a  significant slowdown in the growth of external debt to a meager 0.7%,  while reserves declined by 2.8%. A year earlier, in 2017, the growth  of foreign debt (14.3%) significantly exceeded the growth of  international reserves (4.5%).

According to the World Bank's updated forecasts, the ratio of public  debt to GDP in Armenia in 2018 will be 56.6% (vs. the actual 58.9% in  2017), with a subsequent decrease in 2019 to 55.4% and in 2020 to  55%.  In terms of GDP growth in Armenia, the World Bank predicts 5.3%  for 2018, with a slowdown in 2019 to 4.3% and a slight acceleration  in 2020 to 4.6%.