ArmInfo.In Armenia, economic activity in January-March 2020 compared to January-March 2019 slowed to 4%.
According to preliminary data of the RA Statistical Committee, the energy sector - 14.8% and the industrial sector - 8.7%, and to a lesser extent the services sector - 5.5% and the trading sector - 0.2%, acted as growth drivers, while the agricultural sector demonstrated 4,5% growth after a decline, and this time the construction sector turned in the direction of decline - 9.4%. Compared to last year's pace, growth accelerated in the industrial sector, growth slowed down in the services and trade sectors, the agricultural sector and energy sector registered growth out of recession, and a turn from growth to decline in the construction sector was observed.
A year earlier, in January-March 2019 compared to January-March 2018, economic activity slowed down from 10.6% to 6.5%, amid a decline in exports by 8.6% and imports by 3.1%. Growth was then recorded to a greater extent in the services sector - by 17.3%, the construction sector - by 10.8%, the trade sector - by 10.1%, amid a modest growth in the industrial sector by 2%, and a decline in the agricultural sector and energy sector by 0.2% and 14% respectively.
Meanwhile, in March 2020, compared with February (on a monthly basis), economic activity decreased by 0.2% (against a 14.8% growth in March 2019). Moreover, in addition to the construction sector, which showed an increase of 14%, all other industries have declined: the energy sector - 15.4%, the services sector - 5.8%, the trade sector - 3.5% and the industrial sector - 2%, while agricultural sector statistics for the month is not indicated. A year earlier, in March 2019 compared with February, all sectors demonstrated growth: the construction sector - 61.1%, the industrial sector - 16.1%, the services sector - 10.8%, the energy sector - 9.3%, the trade sector - 6, 7%, and data for the month are not available for the agricultural sector.
In y-o-y terms (March 2020 versus March 2019), economic activity unfolded from a 6.2% increase to a 4.9% decline. This is due to the deterioration of dynamics in all sectors, and a particularly impressive decline was recorded in the construction sector - by 26.2%, followed by a downward trend: trade - 9.9%, services - 4.8%, industrial sector - 1, 9%, the energy complex - 1%, and data on the agricultural sector are not given in the statistical report. A year earlier, in March 2019 versus March 2018, these industries were growing with a tendency to slow down: the service sector - from 18.8% to 16.9%, the retail sector - from 6.3% to 5.3%, the industrial sector - from 8.2% to 2.2%, the energy complex - from 6.9% to 3.4%, the construction sector - from 23.2% to 0.5%. According to statistical data, in January-March 2020, the trading sector with the volume of 657.5 billion AMD ($ 1.4 billion) holds leadership in absolute terms. Services sector is on the second place in terms of volume -451.6 billion AMD ($ 936.3 million), the third is the industrial sector - 450.4 billion AMD ($ 933.8 million), the fourth is the agricultural sector - 73.6 billion AMD ($ 152.6 million), and the fifth is the construction sector - 43.9 billion AMD ($ 91 million). The volume of electricity generation in January-March 2020 amounted to 2083.3 million kWh, of which in March alone - 622 million kWh. The industrial production price index decreased in January-March 2020 compared to the same period last year by 0.1%, In March alone it decreased by 0.4%, and compared with March 2019 it decreased by 1.7%, while a year earlier, the dynamics was as follows: in January-March 2019 - growth of 0.3% y / y, in March - growth of 0.7%, compared with March 2018 - growth of 3%.
At the same time, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia in January-March 2020 amounted to 753.9 billion AMD ($ 1565.1 million) with a y-o-y decline of 4%. In its structure, the volume of exports underwent a y-o-y growth of 0.2% to 262.4 billion AMD ($ 544.9 million), while imports - a decline of 6.2% to 491.5 billion AMD ($ 1020.2 million).
In March 2020 alone, foreign trade turnover decreased by 7.9% due to a decline in exports by 13.3% and imports by 4.9%. In March 2020 versus March 2019, the decline in exports by 17.4% and imports by 15.3%, reduced foreign trade by 16%. A year earlier, in January-March 2019, foreign trade turnover experienced a y-o-y decline of 5% due to a decline in imports by 3.1% and exports by 8.6%. In March 2019, imports grew by 8.8% and exports by 7.5% ensured an increase in foreign trade turnover by 8.4%, compared with March 2018, a decrease in foreign trade turnover by 0.4% was triggered by a decline in exports by 2.5% with an increase in imports by 0.8%.
The average settlement rate of AMD in March 2020 was 489.01 AMD / $ 1, and in January-March - 482.32 AMD / $ 1, against 487.48 AMD / $ 1 in March 2019 and 487.23 AMD / $ 1- in January-March 2019. It should be noted that the RA government predicts a 2% drop in GDP for 2020. According to WB forecasts, Armenia's GDP growth in 2020 will amount to 1.7% (according to the baseline scenario), but the likelihood of a recession is not excluded. In terms of Armenia's foreign trade, the WB forecasts for 2020 a decline in exports and imports by 1.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The IMF predicts a 1.5% drop in GDP in Armenia for 2020. The forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia envisages a slowdown in GDP growth in 2020 to a stagnant 0.7% (from the actual 7.6% growth in 2019). To recall, in Armenia, as part of measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, a state of emergency was introduced from March 16, which will last until May 14 inclusive. In this regard, a temporary ban was imposed on some activities in the first month of emergency, which was partially lifted in the second half of April.