Monday, November 29 2021 18:54

ArmInfo. Over 9 months of 2021, Armenia's GDP increased by 11.1% per annum - up to 4.8 trillion drams or $ 9.3 billion, against a decline of 6% in the same period in  2020 and 9.7% growth in the Pre-COVID comparable period. This is  evidenced by the data of the RA Statistical Committee.

And the quarterly dynamics of GDP was negative only in the Q1- by  34.8% (against a decline of 38.7% in the same period of 2020), after  which in the Q2 there was a growth - by 17.5% (against 0.4% growth a  year earlier), which accelerated in the Q3 to 25.2% (against 38.6%  growth a year earlier).

The GDP deflator index for the reporting 9 months demonstrated higher  growth quarterly than in the Pre-COVID year.  Thus, the GDP deflator  index in Q1 2021 to the same period a year ago was 104.7%, in Q2 -  109.5%, in Q3 - 106.2%, against 103.8%, 102.2%, and 100.4% - in QI-Q3  2019.

GDP per capita by quarter terms for 9 months of this year increased:  from 433.479 thousand drams ($ 827) in Q1 to 531.816 thousand drams  ($ 1023) in Q2 and to 640.822 thousand drams ($ 1307) in Q3,  exceeding the Pre-COVID level of the Q1-Q3 2019 (420.2-617.6 thousand  drams).

GDP growth for 9 months of 2021 was mainly provided by the  construction sector - by 6.4%, the trade sector - by 6.4% and the  service sector - by 5.4%, with a stagnating weak growth in the  industrial sector - by 0.7%. At the same time, the energy complex and  the agricultural sector showed a decline of 2.7% and 1.5%,  respectively. A year earlier, for 9 months of 2020, only the energy  complex, the industrial sector and the agricultural sector remained  in growth - by 1.5%, 1% and 0.5%, respectively, while the  construction sector, the service sector and the trade declined by  15.7%, 11.7% and 11.4% respectively.

At the same time, Armenia's foreign trade turnover reversed dynamics  from 10.5% decline in 9 months of 2020 to 12.2% growth in 9 months of  2021. In its structure, the volume of exports changed from  a 4.4% to  17.2% growth, and imports - from a 13.7% decline to 9.4% growth. As a  comparison, we note that in the Pre-COVID period - for 9 months in  2019, the growth rates of these indicators looked much more modest:  foreign trade turnover - 5.8%, exports - 7.9%, imports - 4.7%.

It should be noted that the World Bank improved its forecast for GDP  growth in Armenia for 2021 from the previous 3.4% to the updated  6.1%, suggesting, as the economy enters the phase of economic  recovery, gradually abandon government support measures  and focus on  creating a competitive business environment that is a  key aspect for  sustainable recovery, resilience to future crises and  long-term  economic growth. According to the WB in the absence of renewed  lockdowns or serious  domestic or regional instability, the economy  is expected to return  to pre- COVID output levels by mid-2022.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September sharply improved  its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 to 6.5% from the  previous 1%, while warning: "The risks of a slowdown in GDP growth in  2022 remain high, including due to geopolitical tensions, slowing  external demand and increased volatility in the global financial  market.  The new wave of COVID-19 infection could also pose a threat,  and in this context, the rapid increase in the number of vaccinations  is highly welcomed. " The European Bank for Reconstruction and  Development (EBRD) in November improved its forecast for GDP growth  in Armenia for 2021 from 4% to 5%, conditioned by a moderate update  of the forecast that the key risks are still associated with a low  level of vaccinations, the future development of the COVID-19  pandemic in general, the ongoing pandemic in the region, and  geopolitical tensions.  The Eurasian Development Bank, on the  contrary, lowered the estimate of GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 by  0.4 p.p., predicting 4.5%, indicating that the main risks of the  baseline scenario for the development of the Armenian economy remain  the uncertainty of the situation with the pandemic and the fixation  of inflation at elevated levels.  In September-October, the S&P,  Fitch and Moody's rating agencies improved their forecasts for real  GDP growth in Armenia in 2021: S&P - from the previous 2.5% to the  updated 6.3%, Fitch - from the previous 3.2% to the updated 5.5%  while Moody's expects 4.5% growth.

According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, updated in  September, GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 has once again improved -  up to 5.4% from the previous 4.6%, against the actual decline in 2020  by 7.4%.