Thursday, September 7 2023 15:25

ArmInfo.Armenia's national debt accelerated in growth from 11.2% to 13.8% per annum, reaching  $11.4 billion (4.4 trillion drams) by August. This was due to a  reversal of the annual trend of external debt from a 4.1% decline  towards 4.1% growth and a slowdown in the increasing rate of domestic  debt from 55.7% to 31.2%, the absolute value of which reached $6.7  billion by August and $4.7 billion, respectively (2.6 trillion drams  and 1.8 trillion drams).

At the same time, over the 7 months of 2023, public debt increased by  6.7% (against 8.1% growth in the same period in 2022), which was  accompanied by the external debt trend moving from a 3.7% decline to  3.4% growth and a sharp slowdown in the growth of domestic debt from  38.6% to 11.8%.

In the structure of external debt by August 2023, the Government's  share increased to 91.8% from 91.5% a year earlier, with the Central  Bank's share declining to 8.2% from last year's 8.5%, amounting in  absolute terms to $6.1 billion and $547.2 million, respectively.  Moreover, unlike last year, when there were multidirectional dynamics  of the external debt of the Government and the Central Bank with an  increasing rate for the Central Bank, now an upward trend is observed  in both cases. In particular, government external debt turned its  annual dynamics from a 5.8% decline towards 4.5% growth, and the  Central Bank debt slowed down significantly in growth from 17.6% to a  stagnant 0.04%. In just 7 months of 2023, the Government's external  debt increased by 3.8%, and the Central Bank debt decreased by 0.7%,  while in the same period in 2022 the opposite picture was recorded -  a decline in the Government's external debt by 5.4% was accompanied  by a double-digit 19. 5% increase in external debt of the Central  Bank.

The structure of domestic government debt is dominated by government  bonds, with the share decreasing by August 2023 to 87.4% from 91.3% a  year earlier ($4.1 billion or 1.6 trillion drams), with a slowdown in  annual growth in absolute value from 49% to 25.7%. The share of  Armenian Eurobonds in domestic debt increased on an annual basis from  8.4% to 12.2% - $571.3 million or 220.6 billion drams, with a  slowdown in annual growth in absolute value from 2.8 times to 91%.  The remaining 0.4% (versus 0.3% a year earlier) came from internal  guarantees - $17.4 million or 6.7 billion drams, with an annual  increase in absolute value of 33.3%. Comparative annual dynamics of  internal guarantees are not given, since they were reset to zero in  August 2019 and did not appear until October 2021. In just 7 months  of 2023, in the structure of domestic government debt, the volume of  government bonds increased by 11.1%, Armenian Eurobonds - by 19.3%,  and internal guarantees decreased by 25.4%, while in the same period  of 2022, for all three positions there was more significant  double-digit growth - 35.6%, 86.2% and 16.8%, respectively.

The ratio of public debt to GDP in 2022 decreased from 63.4% to  49.2%, with double-digit growth in both public debt (by 15.3%) and  GDP (by 12.6%). In 2022, the ratio of external debt to GDP also  decreased - from 45.7% to 29.9%, with a decline in external debt by  3%. The coverage of external debt by gold and foreign exchange  reserves increased from 48.6% to 63.7% in 2022, against the backdrop  of a decline in external debt while accelerating double-digit growth  in reserves from 23.5% to 27.3%. At the end of 2022, both the GDP of  Armenia and the GIR (gross international reserves) of Armenia reached  a historical maximum - 8.5 trillion drams and $4.1 billion,  respectively, and the public debt exceeded $10.6 billion.  load per  capita in 2022 from $3.1 thousand to $3.6 thousand. Moreover, in  2022, the per capita debt burden from external debt remained at the  level of $2.2 thousand, and from domestic debt increased from $870 to  $1.4 thousand.

However, by July 1, 2023, in Armenia the specific debt burden per  capita reached $3,720 thousand from $3,353 thousand a year earlier.  Moreover, the per capita debt burden from external debt decreased  slightly from $2.193 thousand to $2.157 thousand, and from internal  debt, on the contrary, increased noticeably from $1.160 thousand to  $1.563 thousand. At the same time, the population of Armenia  increased over the year by 0.8% or by 23. 2 thousand people - up to  2.985 million people. by July 1, 2023 The degree of coverage of  external debt by gold and foreign exchange reserves by July 1, 2023  increased to 60.7% from 53.1% a year earlier, against the background  of an annual decline in external debt by 1% and an increase in  reserves by 13.3%.