Economist: Armenia`s economic security level is below the generally accepted minimum threshold

ArmInfo. The economy of Armenia was in a closed cycle, as the reforms implemented over the decades did not lead to the desired results. This was stated to journalists by the associate professor of the Department of Economic Theory of ASEU, candidate of economic sciences Atom Margaryan on March 13 in Yerevan.

According to the expert, in spite of the widely advertised campaign of reforms in all spheres of the country's life, which were supposed to lead Armenia along the path of development of such postsocialist countries as Bulgaria, Romania, the Czech Republic, Hungary, the Baltic states, in fact the country was at a dead end. "In fact, Assurances of many political players of Armenia that today the country is ready to join the EU, becoming a full member of the Union, can be considered fictions from the realm of fantasy", Margaryan said. The whole hitch, according to the economist, is in the social and economic situation of Armenia, more precisely - its indicators. "According to the main macroeconomic indicators, Armenia is still quite far from the minimum thresholds of economic security", he said.

According to Atom Margaryan, the economic picture in the country not only does not allow talking about ensuring economic security of the country, but also about the prospect of double-digit growth in the foreseeable future. "One of the generally accepted indicators of the country's economic security in terms of investments is 25% of the level of external financial resources attracted to GDP, in our case, this figure is below 10% of the threshold with last year's FDI of $ 92 million", the expert said. In terms of poverty, the country has no right to display large volumes, than in 7%, and in Armenia, only according to official statistics, the figure exceeds 30% threshold. The unemployment rate, again according to official figures, reached 17%, but in reality it is twice that figure. Meanwhile, according to economic theory, the normal or natural level for a country like Armenia is not more than 7%, the expert said. The situation is also unfavorable because of the level of Armenia's external debt. "The ratio of external debt to GDP reaches a critical level of 60%, and in case of exceeding 25% of the threshold to talk about high economic growth, it is not only unrealistic, but also professionally illiterate", the economist noted. Against this background, today the thread of investment is cut off - jobs - the level of well-being. GDP per capita in the country is $ 3,600, and for a promising integration of Armenia into the European family, its citizens need to provide a minimum of $ 12,000 annual income. Thus, at this stage, according to the expert, the level of Armenia's economic security, according to more than two dozen indicators, is below the generally accepted minimum threshold.