Saturday, April 15 2017 10:10
Svetlana Hovsepyan

Dram went on depreciating to USD, within having a tendency of appreciation to EUR

Dram went on depreciating to USD, within having a tendency of  appreciation to EUR

ArmInfo. On Dec 12-16,  transactions on the forex interbank market of Armenia grew by 60,3%,  following triple growth a week before. In the meantime, the purchase  and sale of USD and RUB demonstrated active dynamics amid the  subsiding interest in RUR operations.

Yerevan, April 15. ArmInfo. Svetlana Hovsepyan. On April 10-14,  transactions on the forex interbank market of Armenia grew by 17.7%,  following triple growth 3 weeks before. In the meantime, the purchase  and sale of USD and EUR demonstrated active dynamics amid the  subsiding interest in EUR operations.

As a result, during the current week AMD weakened its position  against USD from 485.5 to 486 AMD/$1, appreciating to EUR from 518 to  517 AMD/1EUR and depreciating against RUR from 8.6 to 8.7 AMD/1RUR.  Earlier, at the beginning of April  2016, AMD appreciated against USD  from 481 AMD/USD1, strengthening against EUR from 544 to 542  AMD/1EUR, and against RUR from 7.1 to 7.5 AMD/1RUR. For 2016 the  foreign exchange market showed signs of life rarely, making one at a  time transaction in March-May:  USD100 thousand in March, USD2.950  mln in April and USD800 thousand in May, after which it was passive.  In 2016, the Central Bank bought USD on the foreign exchange market  in April (USD2.4 mln), June (USD50.2 mln), August ($19.8 mln), and  September (USD28.8mln), October ( USD 50.8 mln at 475,47/1USD rate)  and sold in January and February (USD53.1 mln and USD 41.5mln, at  AMD484,69 /$1 and  AMD 492,59/$1e respectively).

AMD/1EUR, and 353.9 mln RUR at 7.96 AMD/1RUR. The total amount of the  transactions on the forex interbank market during the current week  amounted $22.074 mln (versus $13.789 mln a week before), and the  average exchange rate was 482,01 AMD/$1 (versus 485,28  a week  before). At the same time, on the intrabank market USD purchase rose  by from 36% to 44%,  while EUR purchase grew by from 26% to 55%.  USD  sales dropped down from 39% to 4%, and EUR sales trend  grew by 23 %  (versus 28% a week before).  Within this picture, RUR purchase  operations showed different dynamics : buy changed its flow from  23%  decrease to 11% growth, and sales drop down slowed  from 54% to 3%.   As a result, the purchase totaled $131  mln at the average exchange  rate of 481,28 AMD/$1, 14,9 mln EUR at 499,32 AMD/1EUR, and 1.1 bln  RUR at 7.78 AMD/1RUR. The sales amounted to $119.8 mln at the average  rate of 482.42 AMD/$1, 15.7  mln EUR at 504.75 AMD/1EUR, and 341.7  mln RUR at 7.91 AMD/1RUR. 

According to the source, during the previous week (March27 to April  1, the Armenian banks provided AMD loans worth 44.2  bln AMD and USD  loans worth $43.5 mln. In the contrary a year ago the dynamic of  given credits worsened in both cases:AMD changing vector from 3.4%  growth to 26.5% fell, USD- previous growth fell 2 times to analogical  fell.

To recall, in 2015, on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia  AMD weakened against USD from 477 to 482 AMD/USD1 on average and  strengthened against EUR from 571.5 to 529 AMD/1EUR and against  Russian ruble from 8.2 to 6.9 AMD/1 RUR.  Between December 14 and 28,  the Central Bank made almost daily interventions.  AMD depreciated  amid decline of foreign trade turnover (by 20.6%), while import  dropped more significantly (by 26.5%) than export (by 3.9%) as well  as the decline in transfer inflow to Armenia more than by 30%, and  this happened in conditions of low buying capacity of the population  and low economic activity in the country.  Since early 2016, AMD  started depreciating again on the retail foreign exchange market of  Armenia to 496AMD/USD1, however since March it strengthened and stood  at 482 AMD/1USD by March 25. In overall in H1 2016 AMD appreciated to  477 AMD/USD1 from 482 AMD/USD1, devaluating in mid Feb (to 496  AMD/USD1 from 482AMD/USD1 on Feb 12), in the first decade of April  (to 484.5AMD/USD1 from 479 AMD/USD1), in mid May (to 480.5 AMD/USD1  from 479 AMD/USD1-on May 12), in the early and late June (to 479  AMD/USD1 from 478 on June 3 and to 477 AMD/USD1 from 476 AMD/USD1 on  June 30).  In July AMD appreciated to 476 AMD/USD1 only in the  beginning of the third decade, after which it stood at the initial  level of 477 AMD/USD1. In August, AMD demonstrated revaluation - 475  AMD/USD1 by August 31 and stood at this level in the first ten days  of September, after which it further revaluated.  Thus, by September  30, AMD appreciated against USD and EUR to 474 AMD/USD1 and 532  AMD/1EUR, respectively. Along with it, AMD depreciated against RUR to  7.5 AMD/1RUR. In October AMD devaluated against USD to 476 AMD/1USD,  revaluated against EUR to 521 AMD/1EUR, while the AMD/RUR exchange  rate remained unchanged - 7.5 AMD/1RUR.  This trend continued in  November.  By November 30, AMD depreciated against USD to 480.5  AMD/$1, at the same time appreciating against EUR to 511 AMD/1EUR and  appreciating against RUR at 7.4 AMD/1RUR. In early December AMD kept  depreciating against USD, at the same time weakening against EUR and  RUR, but in mid-December AMD appreciated against EUR and continued  weakening against RUR, retaining its position against USD.


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