Friday, February 23 2018 14:21
Emmanuil Mkrtchyan

EDB forecasts 3% GDP growth in Armenia in ythe year of 2018 

EDB forecasts 3% GDP growth in Armenia in ythe year of 2018 

ArmInfo. The Eurasian Development Bank expects positive economic growth rates in the member countries during 2018 and a 2.2% GDP increase. GDP growth will be appropriately: in Armenia, 3%, in Belarus - 2.6%, in Kazakhstan - 3.7%, in Kyrgyzstan - 4.2%, in Russia - 2%, in Tajikistan - 7.3%. This is stated in the quarterly macroeconomic review prepared by the EDB Chief Economist Group.

The recorded low level of inflation achieved in 2017 (in the region as a whole, around 3%) will increase to 4% in 2018, but it will remain within the framework of the target targets of central / national banks. As a result of 2018, inflation in Armenia is projected at 3.4% (an increase in December compared to December of the previous year), in Belarus - 6%, in Kazakhstan - 5.8%, in Kyrgyzstan - 4.7%, in Russia - 3.8%, in Tajikistan - 6.1%.

The report notes that in 2017, the economies of participating countries EDB adapted to negative external conditions and entered the trajectory of positive economic growth. The task of the next few years is a more stable and high economic growth of the region's economy.

The authors of the report note that the countries participating in the EDB demonstrate positive growth rates due to improved external conditions, gradual easing of monetary policy and fiscal incentives.

At the end of 2017, the region's GDP grew by 1.8%, compared with a 0.1% drop in 2016. There is a restoration of mutual trade. The volume of trade turnover of the Eurasian Economic Union for January- November 2017 amounted to 48.8 billion US dollars, or 126.4% to the level of the corresponding period of 2016. Monetary policy demonstrates some success. Inflation in December 2017 reached a record low in the Republic of Belarus - 4.6% compared to December of the previous year. In Russia - 2.5% for the same period. In other countries of the region, inflation did not exceed the established targets.

"Effective work of budget rules will allow to weaken the dependence of the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate on oil prices in the leading economies of the region and will contribute to the stabilization of the mutual exchange rates of the EDB member countries," said EDB Chief Economist Yaroslav Lissovolik.

A special report on  the macro review is devoted to the mutual trade of the EEA member countries, within which there is an increase in nominal volumes, an increase in the diversification of the structure and a reduction in the raw material orientation. In the opinion of the authors of the report, all this indicates that the unified market of goods and services of the EAPS begins to yield economic dividends.

 At the same time, mutual economic cooperation is focused, inter alia, on the development of intra-industry trade, which will allow it to become one of economic growth  drivers.

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