ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia also this time kept the refinancing rate at the same level - 6%. As the press service of the Central Bank told ArmInfo, this decision was made on March 27 at a meeting of the Central Bank of Armenia. Along with this, at the same level, the rate for lombard repo was kept at 7.5%, and deposits attracted from banks - 4.5%.
According to the estimates of the Central Bank Board, taking into account external and internal economic progress, as predicted, inflation in the coming months will remain at the lower threshold of the permitted target range. In addition, the CB Board continues to expect a weak inflationary influence from the external sector in parallel with the expansion of external demand.
According to the estimates of the Central Bank, in Q1 2018, economic activity will slightly exceed expectations, due to the observed high growth in services, industry and construction. Faster than expected rates, domestic demand has also increased, which continues to be supported by an expanded monetary policy and a high growth in lending to the economy. Along with this, the additional inflationary expectations observed at the beginning of the year significantly softened and stabilized.
Considering the above, the CB Board considered it expedient to maintain the current monetary and credit conditions. At the same time, the CB Board believes that, in the context of the forecasted development, it will be necessary to gradually neutralize the stimulating monetary conditions to ensure inflation at the target level. As a result, a slight increase in annual inflation is expected in the range of permissible deviations with stabilization at the target threshold.
The central bank, in the conditions of formation of risks, will correct the monetary and credit conditions accordingly.
We note that in 2017, after the February fall from 6.25% to 6%, at the subsequent meetings (in March, May, June, August, September, November and December), the Central Bank left the refinancing rate unchanged, also in February 2018g.