Friday, January 10 2020 00:04
Karine Melikyan

Outflow of private transfers from Armenia to the USA is growing  rapidly, while decreasing to Russia

Outflow of private transfers from Armenia to the USA is growing  rapidly, while decreasing to Russia

ArmInfo. Over the 10 months of 2019, the outflow of transfers of individuals increased by 24% per annum - to $ 1.2 billion, with an increase in inflows by only 8.8% -  to $ 1.6 billion. According to the Central Bank of Armenia, this  reduced the net inflow in y-o-y terms by 20.1% - up to $ 403.5  million.

Moreover, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia for 10  months of 2019 decreased by 0.6% per annum with a decrease in outflow  by 17.5%, and in the direction of the United States, a moderate  increase in inflow was accompanied by a significant increase in  outflow - 29.8% against 65.4%. As a result, the net inflow of  transfers from Russia went up 12.9%, remaining at a positive level,  while from the United States, on the contrary, it turned in the  direction of decline - 3-fold, moving down to a minus level.

In the structure of inflow, the share of Russia decreased in annual  terms from 59.5% to 54.4%, which was also observed in the outflow - a  decrease in the share from 40.6% to 27%. Over 10 months of 2019, $  861.3 million was transferred from Russia to Armenia through  individuals' transfers, and $ 318.3 million flowed away to Russia. $  227.9 million was transferred from the United States through private  transfers over 10 months, and $ 251.5 million was transferred from  Armenia.

To note for comparison, that for 10 months of 2018, a similar  dynamics was observed: the outflow showed higher annual growth rates  - 22%, while the inflow grew by only 4.1%, which reduced the net  inflow by 18.4%. And even then, the growth in the inflow of transfers  from Russia slowed to 1.6% with an increase in outflows by 24.5%,  while the high growth rates of outflows and inflows to the United  States continued - by 13.5% and 21.3%, respectively.

The Central Bank of Armenia once again narrowed the forecast range  for the growth of the net inflow of private transfers for 2019 to  0-2%, against the previously worsened forecast range from 5-7% to  1-3%. But for 2020, the Central Bank predicts a recovery in the  growth rate of individuals' money transfers to 7-9%, due to the  positive growth trends in the Russian economy, from where the  dominant volume of private transfers comes to Armenia. At the same  time, the Central Bank improved its forecast for GDP growth for 2019,  establishing a range of 7-7.3% (against the previous 6.7-7.2%), which  was revised closer to the end of the year to 7.3-7.4%.

According to the statistics of the Central Bank, in 2018, the inflow  of transfers of individuals to Armenia slowed down the growth to 1.7%  from 14.6% in 2017, amounting to $ 1.786 billion. At the same time,  the growth rate of the outflow of transfers slowed slightly - from  21.2% in 2017 to 20, 1% in 2018, amounting to $ 1.188 billion. This  worsened the dynamics of the net inflow of transfers from 7.1% growth  in 2017 to 22.1% decline in 2018, forming at the level of $ 597.2  million. Russia's share in the inflow decreased in 2018 from 60.6% to  58.8%, and in outflow, on the contrary, increased from 38% to 39.7%. 

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