Wednesday, January 15 2020 14:47
Karine Melikyan

Armenia`s trade volume with the EAEU keeps growing, while declining  with the EU 

Armenia`s trade volume with the EAEU keeps growing, while declining  with the EU 

ArmInfo.The y-o-y growth in foreign trade between Armenia and Russia in January-November 2019 slowed to 12.6% from last year's 13.5%, amounting to $ 1.98 billion.   This was triggered by a slowdown in export growth from 19.3% to  10.8%, with accelerating growth of imports - from 10.6% to 13.6%, the  volumes of which amounted to $ 671.5 million and $ 1.3 billion,  respectively. According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic  of Armenia, Russia holds the lead with a large margin.

China, Switzerland, Germany and Iran are also in the TOP-5 in terms  of foreign trade turnover with Armenia - $ 824.9 million, $ 451.8  million, $ 385.9 million and $ 362.7 million respectively. Of these,  the highest growth was recorded in trade with China - by 17.4%, and  the decline with Germany - by 5.2%.

In terms of export in the TOP-5 Russia is followed by Switzerland,  Bulgaria, Iraq and China , $ 413 million, $ 201.5 million, $ 160.96  million and $ 160.86 million respectively. Of these, the largest  growth was recorded in China - by 71%, and the smallest - in Bulgaria  - by 0 ,4%.

As for imports, Russia is followed by China, Germany, Iran and Turkey  in the TOP-5 - respectively $ 664 million, $ 321.4 million, $ 286.6  million and $ 236.7 million. Of these, the largest growth was  recorded by Iran - by 17.8%, and the smallest by Turkey - by 3.8%.

In total, in the export structure, the largest growth for the  reporting period was recorded by Cyprus - 7 fold, despite the fact  that the volume is still meager. And in the structure of imports, the  United Kingdom showed the highest growth - by 94.3%, but even in this  direction the volume is modest.

Full zeroing of exports was recorded to Brazil, with an increase in  imports in this direction by 2.1%. The largest annual decline in  exports was recorded to Romania - by 99.9% with an increase in  imports in this direction by 5.6%, and for imports the largest  decline by Turkmenistan - by 91.1% with an increase in exports in  this direction by 88.5 %

The volume of foreign trade of Armenia with the EAEU countries grew  over 11 months of 2019 by 12.8% per annum to $ 2.05 billion, while  with the EU countries, on the contrary, it fell by 7.6% to $ 1.6  billion, while a year earlier growth was recorded in both directions  - by 13.6% and 22.6%, respectively. Moreover, the export of Armenian  goods to the EAEU countries slowed down growth from 20.5% to 10.7%,  amounting to $ 694.7 million, while growth of import accelerated from  10.3% to 13.9% to $ 1.4 billion, while with the EU countries decline  was recorded in both exports and imports- by 14.2% and 3.5%,  respectively, to $ 549.4 million and $ 1.01 billion, compared with  11.3% and 30.8% a year earlier. Among the EAEU countries in terms of  foreign trade, Russia is followed by Belarus - $ 60.1 million (y-o-y  growth accelerated from 14.8% to 28.7%), Kazakhstan - $ 7.4 million  (reversal from 48.1% growth by 37.4% recession) and Kyrgyzstan - $  3.2 million (out of the 43.7% decline to 3.3-fold growth). Export of  Armenian goods to Belarus slowed down growth from 81% to 33.7%, while  import growth jumped from 2.8% to 27%. The export of goods to  Kazakhstan changed the dynamics from a 2-fold growth by a 45.4%  decline, with a continuing decline in imports with a slowdown from  16.8% to 14.4%. In the direction of Kyrgyzstan, exports after the  57.2% decline registered 4.2-fold increase, while the dynamics of  imports, on the contrary, turned from a 14.7-fold increase to a 33.4%  decline.

According to statistical data, in total, the foreign trade turnover  of Armenia slowed down growth in January-November 2019 to 7.4% from  last year's 19.1%, exceeding $ 7.2 billion, in particular, export  growth slowed slightly - from 9.8% to 9%, amounting to $ 2.4 billion,  while import growth sharply dropped from 24.2% to 6.6%, amounting to  $ 4.8 billion. In November 2019 versus November 2018, export growth  by 25.7% after decline, while import growth slowing down from 12.5%  up to 9.6%, accelerated the growth of foreign trade from 6.9% to  14.2%. The main buyers of Armenian goods in January-November 2019  were Russia - 28% in exports, Switzerland - 17.2%, Bulgaria - 8.4%,  Iraq and China - 6.7% each. The main suppliers of imported products  to Armenia were Russia - 27% in total imports, China - 13.8%, Germany  - 6.6%, Iran - 5.9% and Turkey - 4.9%.

To note, economic activity in Armenia for 11 months of 2019  accelerated the growth rate from 5.7% to 7.5% per annum. According to  the forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, updated  in December, expectations for the growth of Armenia's GDP in 2019  were once again improved to 7-7.3% (7.2% on average) from the  previous 6.7-7.2% (6.9 %on average), exports - up to 9-11% and  imports - 4- 6% (against the previous 5-7% and 1-3%). According to  the new WB forecast, Armenia's GDP growth in 2020 will slow down to  5.1% from an estimated 6.9% in 2019, while export and import growth  in 2019 is expected to slow down to 5.1% and 4.2%, respectively from  7.8% and 21.1%actually recorded in 2018.

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