Friday, January 31 2020 14:05
Karine Melikyan

In Armenia, growth of economic activity accelerated in 2019 to 7.8%  against 5.8% in 2018

In Armenia, growth of economic activity accelerated in 2019 to 7.8%  against 5.8% in 2018

ArmInfo.In Armenia, the growth of economic activity in January- December 2019 has accelerated to 7.8% per annum, against a slowdown in 2018 to 5.8% and 7.7% in 2017.

 The drivers were the service sector, the industrial sector and the  commercial sector, with a modest growth in the construction sector  and a decline in the agricultural sector and the energy sector.  According to preliminary data of the Statistical Committee of the  Republic of Armenia, in December 2019 alone there was a growth of  24.9% with a y-o-y growth of 10.7%, while a year earlier the December  growth was a little more modest - 24.3%, and the y-o-y  growth was  lower - 6.4%.

The growth of economic activity in January-December 2019 continues to  be mainly supported by the services sector - by 15% (with a slowdown  in growth), as well as by the industrial sector - by 9% (with a  faster pace) and the trade sector - by 8.9% (almost unchanged) ),  amid continuing modest growth in the construction industry - by 4.6%.  At the same time, the y-o-y dynamics of the energy sector unfolded  from an increase of 1.9% decline, and the agricultural sector,  delayed by the decline, slowed down to 4.2%. A year earlier, in  January-December 2018, the service sector and the retail sector  showed the highest growth - 18.8%, 8.7%, respectively, with a  relatively modest growth in the industrial sector, construction  sector and energy sector - by 4.3%, 4.5% and 0.2%, respectively, and  the decline in the agricultural sector by 7.6%.

The industrial production price index increased in January-December  2019 compared to the same period in 2018 by 0.5%, in December 2019  compared to December 2018 - by 1.4%, and only in December 2019 - by  2.6%, against a corresponding increase of 1.6%, a decline of 1.2% and  a growth of 0.5% in the same periods of 2018.

In a monthly breakdown (for December 2019), without data on the  agricultural sector, all other sectors showed growth: construction  sector - 85%, trade - 27.7%, energy sector - 24.7%, services - 21%,  industrial sector - 14, 7% A year earlier, in December 2018, growth  was observed in the areas of: construction - 84.7%, trade - 34.1%,  agriculture - 22.1%, services - 15.7%, industry - 12.5%, and the  energy sector was in decline by 0.7%.

In y-o-y terms (December 2019 to December 2018), without data on the  agricultural sector, growth was observed in other areas: services  sector - 16.6%, energy sector - 14%, industrial sector and trade -  6.4% each, construction - 4.9 %. A year earlier, in December 2018  compared to December 2017, the agricultural sector and the energy  sector were in decline - by 2% and 18.7%, respectively, and the rest  of the sectors showed growth: services - 22.2%, industrial sector -  5.5%, trade - 4 .8%, construction - 1.2%.

According to statistical data, in January-December 2019, the trading  sector with the volume of 3.249 trillion drams ($ 6.8 billion )   holds leadership in absolute terms.. In the second position, the  industrial sector recovered - 2.104 trillion ($ 4.4 billion),  displacing the services sector in third place - 2.062 trillion drams  ($ 4.3 billion), in the fourth - agricultural sector - 852.8 billion  drams ($ 1.8 billion), and in the fifth - construction sector - 434.6  billion drams ($ 904.6 million). The volume of electricity generation  in January- December 2019 amounted to 7632.3 million kWh, of which  765.2 million kWh - in December alone.

At the same time, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia in  January-December 2019 amounted to 3912.9 billion drams ($ 8154.1  million) with a slowdown in y-o-y growth to 10.4% from 16.4% in 2018.  In its structure, export volume accelerated annual growth - up to  9.4% from 7.8% in 2018, amounting to 1267.1 billion drams ($ 2640.3  million), while y-o-y growth in imports slowed sharply to 10.8% from  21.1% in 2018 amounting to 2645.8 billion drams ($ 5513.8 million).

The average settlement rate of dram in December 2019 was 478.24 dr /  $ 1, and in January-December 2019 - 480.45 dr / $ 1, against 484.67  dr / $ 1 in December 2018 and 482.99 dr / $ 1 - in January December  2018 It should be noted that according to the forecast of the World  Bank updated in early January 2020, it indicated an increase in  expectations of Armenia's GDP growth in 2019 by 6.9% (compared to the  previous 5.5%), and for 2020 it was forecasted to slow down to 5.1%  with acceleration in 2021 and 2022 to 5.2%.  IMF forecasts for  Armenia's GDP growth were much more modest: in 2019 by 4.6% with a  slowdown in 2020 to 4.5%. The Central Bank of the Republic of  Armenia, judging by the forecast updated in December, once again  improved its expectations for GDP growth for 2019, indicating a range  of 7-7.3% (7.2% on average), against 6.7-7.2% previously forecasted  (average 6.9%). For 2020, the Central Bank and the government came up  with a similar forecast to the IMF growth.


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