Friday, January 31 2020 16:16
Karine Melikyan

Increase in foreign trade deficit of Armenia slowed down  significantly - to 12.6% in 2019

Increase in foreign trade deficit of Armenia slowed down  significantly - to 12.6% in 2019

ArmInfo. The small prevalence of import growth rates (10.8%) over export (9.4%) sharply has  slowed down the growth of the foreign trade deficit of Armenia in January-  December 2019 compared to January-December 2018 to 12.6%. A year  earlier, in January-December 2018, the foreign trade deficit jumped  by 31.7% per annum against the backdrop of a sharp slowdown in export  growth from 25.2% to 7.8% with a slight slowdown in import growth  from 27.8% to 21.1%.

As a result, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia in  January-December 2019 moderately slowed down y-o- y growth - up to  10.4%, while in 2018 there was a sharp slowdown in upward rates to  16.4% from 26.9% in 2017.

According to preliminary data of the RA Statistical Committee, the  foreign trade turnover of Armenia in January-December 2019 amounted  to 3912.9 billion drams ($ 8154.1 million), in particular, exports -  1267.1 billion drams ($ 2640.3 million), imports - up to 2645.8  billion drams ($ 5513.8 million), which formed a foreign trade  deficit at the level of 1378.7 billion drams ($ 2.9 billion).

In December 2019 alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 10.1% due  to an increase in imports by 18.4%, with a decline in exports by  8.4%. As a result, the foreign trade deficit of Armenia increased in  December 2019 by 40.8%, amounting to 210.1 billion drams ($ 439.4  million). A year earlier, in December 2018, foreign trade turnover  increased by 16.4% due to an increase in exports by 7.8% and imports  by 21.1%, which reduced the foreign trade deficit by 21.9% to 113.9  billion drams ($ 235 million) .

In y-o-y terms (December 2019 to December 2018), foreign trade  turnover increased by 39.3%, which was more driven by an increase in  imports (by 51.7%) than in exports (by 13%). A year earlier, in  December 2018 to December 2017, the reverse trend was observed, and  downward: the decline in foreign trade by 5.6% was provoked by a more  significant subsidence of exports (by 10.6%) than imports (by 3%).

According to statistics, the economic activity of Armenia in  January-December 2019 accelerated the annual growth rate to 7.8%,  against a slowdown in 2018 to 5.8% from 7.7% in 2017. In December  2019 alone, economic activity increased by 24.9%, after a decline of  8.4% in November. In annual terms (December 2019 to December 2018),  economic activity grew by 10.7% (against a growth of 6.4% in December  2018 compared to December 2017).

According to Statistical Data, the economic activity of Armenia in  January-December 2019 accelerated the y-o-y growth rate to 7.8%,  against a slowdown in 2018 to 5.8% from 7.7% in 2017. In December  2019 alone, economic activity increased by 24.9%, after a decline of  8.4% in November. In y-o-yl terms (December 2019 to December 2018),  economic activity grew by 10.7% (against a growth of 6.4% in December  2018 compared to December 2017).

It should be noted that the World Bank forecast updated at the  beginning of January 2020 provided for an improvement in expectations  of Armenia's GDP growth in 2019 - by 6.9% (compared to the previous  5.5%), and for 2020 a slowdown in growth rates was forecasted to 5.1%  with acceleration in 2021 and 2022 to 5.2%. Moreover, in terms of  export and import, the World Bank previously forecasted growth for  5.1% and 4.2%, respectively, for 2019, with an acceleration in 2020  to 6.8% and 6.7%, respectively and further in 2021 to 7% and 7.2%.   To recall, the Central Bank of Armenia in its December updated  forecast once again improved its expectations for GDP growth for  2019, indicating a range of 7-7.3% (7.2% on average), against  6.7-7.2% previously forecasted ( 6.9% on average). The regulator also  corrected forecasts for 2019 on the growth of both exports - up to  9-11% from the previous 5-7%, and imports - up to 4-6% from the  previous 1-3%.


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