ArmInfo.According to the forecast of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), inflation in Armenia in 2020 will be 2.8% (versus 1.4% in 2019), and in 2021 - 2.2%. This forecast was published on April 3 in the ADB economic report, Asian Development Outlook 2020.
"Monetary policy is expected to remain generally adaptive. Acceleration of inflation in 2020 will take place with continued growth in aggregate demand and expansionary fiscal policy, which assumes only a slight effect on prices from higher import prices for certain goods when moving to a single external tariff within the EAEU. Slowing inflation will follow in 2021. The 12-month inflation rate from December to December is expected to remain within the Central Bank's target range of 2.5-5.5%, at least until the end of 2021, "the ADB report said.
In neighboring countries, ADB expects: in Georgia, inflation of 4.5% in 2020 with a slowdown to 3% in 2021, and in Azerbaijan - 2.5% in 2020 with an acceleration of 3.5% in 2021.
According to the ADB forecast, inflation from the EAEU countries in Kazakhstan is expected to reach 6% in 2020 with a slowdown to 5.7% in 2021, while inflation in Kyrgyzstan will slow down from 3.5% in 2020 to 3% in 2021.
Among the CIS countries, ADB expects the highest inflation rate in 2020 in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan - 13% and slightly less in Tajikistan - 9%. In 2021, inflation is forecasted to be 10% in Uzbekistan, and 8% in Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.
According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, inflation in the consumer market of Armenia in 2019 was lower - 0.7% than in 2018 - 1.8%. The average monthly increase in consumer prices in January-December 2019 amounted to 0.1%, repeating the trend a year ago. In annual terms (January-December 2019 to January-December 2018), consumer market also recorded inflation - 1.4% (against inflation 2.5% a year ago).
It should be noted that according to the WB forecast, inflation in Armenia is expected at 4% in 2020 and 2021. The Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia forecasts inflation of 1.9% for 2020. And in the RA budget for 2020, the inflation rate of 4% (+/- 1.5) is laid down.
