ArmInfo. In Armenia, the state debt grew by 6% per annum by March 2020 - up to $ 7.4 billion (3.5 trillion drams). In its structure, y-o-y growth of both external debt - by 4% to $ 5.7 billion (2.7 trillion drams) and internal - by 14.1% - to $ 1.6 billion (773.3 billion drams) was recorded. This is evidenced by the preliminary data of the RA Ministry of Finance, published in the monthly report of the Statistical Committee.
To note for comparison that a year earlier - by March 2019, these indicators showed the following dynamics: external debt decreased by 0.6%, internal debt increased by 9.7%, which increased the total public debt of Armenia by 1.4% per annum.
In the structure of external debt, the government's share grew in y-o-y terms from 90% to 91.5%, amounting to $ 5.3 billion by March 2020. And the Central Bank's share, on the contrary, decreased from 10% to 8.5%, amounting to $ 485.2 million. Moreover, external debt of the government accelerated annual growth from 0.5% to 5.5%, and the Central Bank's external debt, lingering in recession, accelerated the pace from 9.7% to 11.8%.
Government bonds dominate in the structure of internal public debt - 92.2% or $ 1.5 billion (713 billion drams), with y-o-y growth of absolute value by 20.6%. This is followed by Armenian Eurobonds - 7.8% or $ 126.2 million (60.4 billion drams), with a y-o-y decline in absolute value by 27%. And the portfolio of internal guarantees, the share of which in domestic debt in 2018 was 0.7% or $ 9 million, has been reset since August 2019 and is still empty.
It should be noted that according to the updated Fitch forecast, in Armenia the ratio of public debt to GDP will increase from 53.6% in 2019 to 59.2% in 2020, after which it will decrease to 56% in 2021. Fitch notes that the dominant share of the state debt of Armenia is nominated in foreign currency - 79%, which leads to the emergence of currency risk.
To recall, in 2019, the general public debt of Armenia accelerated growth from 2.2% to 5.8%, amounting to 3.5 trillion drams ($ 7.3 billion). In its structure, external debt accelerated growth from 0.7% to 4.6%, amounting to 2.8 trillion drams ($ 5.8 billion), and internal - from 8.6% to 10.7%, amounting to 736.1 billion drams ($ 1.5 billion). The degree of coverage of external debt with gold and currency reserves increased in 2019 from 40.8% to 49.2%, against the background of a moderate acceleration in the growth of external debt when the reserve trend reversed from a 2.4% decline to a 25.7% growth. The acceleration of government debt growth, with a decrease in the population and a minus migration balance, increased the unit debt burden per capita in 2019 to $ 2.5 thousand from $ 2.3 thousand in 2018. Of these, $ 2 thousand (against $ 1.9 thousand in 2018) come from external debt
