Monday, May 25 2020 19:46
Karine Melikyan

Negative balance of Armenia`s foreign trade is reduced due to a  disproportionate decline in exports and imports

Negative balance of Armenia`s foreign trade is reduced due to a  disproportionate decline in exports and imports

ArmInfo. The negative balance of foreign trade turnover of Armenia has decreased in January-April 2020 by 16.2% per annum, against the growth of 9.2% a year earlier.

This is due to the disproportionate decline in exports and imports - by  8.1% and 11.5%, respectively (against the decline by 8.6% and 1.9%,  respectively, a year earlier).

Against this background, economic  activity in the country worsened the y-o-y dynamics in January-April  2020 to 1.7% decline from 7% growth a year earlier, in April it  decreased by 13.5% (against 0.3% decline in April 2019), and compared  to April 2019, it declined by 17.2% (against 9.2% growth in the same  period a year ago).

According to preliminary data of the RA Statistical Committee, the  foreign trade turnover of Armenia in January-April 2020 amounted to  974.2 billion drams ($ 2015.9 million), in particular export - 334.6  billion drams ($ 692.5 million), import - 639.6 billion drams ($  1323.4 million), which formed a negative foreign trade balance at the  level of 305 billion drams ($ 630.9 million).

In April 2020 alone, foreign trade accelerated the decline to 15.3%  from March 7.9%, due to the accelerated decline in exports to 15.5%  from March 13.3% and imports from 4.9% to 15.2%. As a result, the  negative balance of foreign trade of Armenia decreased in April 2020  by 14.7% (against the 34.2% growth in April 2019), amounting to 73.7  billion drams ($ 151 million).

In y-o-y terms (April 2020 compared to April 2019), the decline in  foreign trade by 28.4% was due to a decrease in both exports by 30.3%  and imports by 27.4%, while a year earlier in the same period (April  2019 compared to April 2018) there was a 15.9% increase in foreign  trade, triggered by an increase in exports of 9.9% and imports of  18.9%. The negative balance of foreign trade of Armenia decreased in  April 2020 against to April 2019 by 35.4%, compared to a 2-fold  increase in April 2019 compared to April 2018.

It should be noted that the World Bank forecasts for Armenia's  foreign trade for 2020 a decline in exports and imports by 1.5% and  2.6%, respectively. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of  the Republic of Armenia, in 2020, imports will decrease by 9-11%  (against the actual growth in 2019 by 9.1%), and exports - by 5-7%  (against the actual growth in 2019 by 10.3%), which will have a  negative impact on real GDP, which is expected to slow down to  stagnant 0.7% (from the actual 7.6% growth in 2019).

To recall, in Armenia, as part of measures to prevent the spread of  the coronavirus pandemic, a state of emergency was introduced from  March 16, which will last until June 13. In this regard, many types  of economic activities in the first month of emergency were imposed a  temporary ban, which was partially lifted in the second half of  April. Since May 4, the list of permitted types of business  activities has been further expanded to ensure the vital functions of  the economy, and since May 18, the ban has been lifted almost  completely. From the same day, public transport (including the metro)  and many public catering facilities and services began to operate,  but so far the activities of international air, rail, and bus  services have been limited. 

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