ArmInfo. The World Bank (WB) has updated its forecast for Armenia's GDP for 2020 to worsen - it is expected to decline by 2.8% with a subsequent 4.9% growth in 2021, against the actual growth of 7.6% in 2019. This was stated in the WB June report "The Global Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Pandemic". It should be noted that earlier, in its May forecast, the World Bank predicted a slowdown in Armenia's GDP growth in 2020 to 1.7%, not excluding the negative scenario of a possible decline.
GDP of neighboring countries will fall more significantly In the updated forecast, the WB also worsened expectations for 2020 GDP of Armenia's neighboring countries: in Georgia, the decline will be 4.8% (against the previously projected growth of 0.1% and 5.1% growth in 2019); in Azerbaijan - the decline will be 2.6% (against the previously forecasted decline of 0.2% and 2.2% growth in 2019); Turkey's economy - will fall by 3.8% (against the previously forecasted growth of 0.5% and 0.9% growth in 2019).
In the EAEU, the most decline in GDP is expected in Russia According to the new WB report, in the EAEU countries, GDP expectations for 2020 have also worsened: in Russia, the decline will be 6% (against the previously projected 1% and actual 1.3% growth in 2019), in Kazakhstan- 3% (against the previously forecasted 0.8% and actual 4.5% growth in 2019), in Belarus - 4% (against the same previous forecast and the actual 1.2% growth in 2019), in Kyrgyzstan - 4% (against the previously forecasted growth of 0.4% and the actual 4.5% growth in 2019).
World economy in WB forecast looks no better The recession in the global economy, according to the new WB forecast, will be 5.2% in 2020 (from the actual 2.4% growth in 2019), and in the region of Europe and Central Asia - 4.7% (from the actual 2.2 % growth in 2019). The US economy will drop 6.1% (from the actual 2.3% growth in 2019), the Eurozone - 9.1% (from the actual 1.2% growth in 2019), Japan - 6.1% (from the actual 0.7% growth in 2019), while China's GDP will slow growth to 1% (from the actual 6.1% growth in 2019).
To recall, according to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, in January-April 2020, economic activity in Armenia decreased by 1.7% per annum (compared to 7% growth a year earlier), against the backdrop of a decline in exports and imports by 8.1% and 11, 5% respectively. In April 2020, compared to April 2019, economic activity decreased by 17.2%, compared to an increase of 9.2% in April 2019 compared to April 2018. And in April 2020 alone, economic activity decreased by 13.5%, against a decline of 0.3% in April 2019.
