Wednesday, June 10 2020 14:09

ArmInfo. By May 2020, the foreign  trade turnover between Armenia and Russia remained in growth with a  slowdown in y-o-y  rates from 4.8% to 2%, which was triggered by the  decline of exports from 0.7% growth to 11.3% decline with weak growth  acceleration of imports from 6.6% to 8.1%. According to the RA  Statistical Committee, the foreign trade turnover between Armenia and  Russia amounted to $ 636.4 million in January-April 2020, in  particular, export -$ 174.1 million, and import - $ 462.3 million.

After Russia, China, Switzerland, Iran remained in the TOP-5 in  foreign trade turnover with Armenia in January-April 2020 and the  fifth position was taken by the UAE - respectively $ 245.5 million, $  108.7 million, $ 101.1 million and $ 69.98 million. In the leading  five in the growth in foreign trade turned out to be Russia and the  UAE, with a maximum by the UAE - 54%, while among the other three  countries, Switzerland registered the most decline-30.1%.

Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, Bulgaria and China gained a  foothold in TOP-5 of export states after Russia, respectively $ 104.3  million, $ 63.3 million, $ 61.7 million and $ 57.8 million. In the  top five exports, growth was recorded by three countries with a  maximum in the UAE - 3.4-fold, and Russia and Switzerland scored a  decline, with a maximum by Switzerland - 21.8%.

China, Iran, Turkey and Italy ranked in imports in TOP-5 after Russia  - $ 187.7 million, $ 73.2 million, $ 62.7 million and $ 57.1 million  respectively. Of these, only Russia remained in growth in imports,  and of the other four, Turkey was in the most recession - 16 , 7%.

In total, in the structure of exports, zeroing was recorded for  Brazil and Romania (with a decline in imports from these countries by  12.5-13.5%), and the Cyprus indicator is close to zero - a decline of  94.7% with an increase in imports by 20 , 7%. In the structure of  imports, zeroing appears in Iraq with a decline in exports by 26.7%.

In January-April 2020, the volume of Armenia's foreign trade with the  EAEU countries kept growing with a slowdown to 2.4% from 5% a year  earlier, amounting to $ 661.8 million, while with the EU countries  the decline slowed down from 23.6% to 13.4%, amounting to $ 399.95  million. Moreover, the export of Armenian goods to the EAEU countries  amounted to $ 180.9 million with a turn in y-o-y dynamics from 0.7%  growth to a 10.6% decline, with a slight acceleration in import  growth from 6.9% to 8.3 % - to $ 480.9 million. And with EU  countries, the decline in imports and exports slowed to 14.4% and  11.7%, respectively (from 16.2% and 34.2% a year earlier), amounting  to $ 247.4 million and $ 152.5 million.  Among the EAEU countries in  terms of foreign trade turnover Belarus follows Russia - $ 22.2  million (a slowdown in y-o-y growth from 19.9% to 14.9%), Kazakhstan  - $ 2.8 million (a way out of the 28.8% decline by 3.5% growth) and  Kyrgyzstan - $ 391.2 thousand (a reversal from 69% growth to a 22.1%  decline). Exports of Armenian goods to Belarus increased by 24.2%  with an increase in imports by 12.5%, and a significant slowdown in  the decline in exports of goods to Kazakhstan to 9.6% was accompanied  by an acceleration in the growth of imports to 29.3%. In the  direction of Kyrgyzstan, exports turned from a significant increase  in the direction of a decline of 34.5%, with the imports with a way  out of the recession by 17.4-fold growth.

According to the statistical data, the total foreign trade turnover  of Armenia accelerated the y-o-y decline - from 4.2% in January-April  2019 to 10.4% in January-April 2020, amounting to $ 2.016 billion. In  particular, exports slowed down the decline from 8.6% to 8.1%,  amounting to $ 692.5 million, while imports accelerated decline from  1.9% to 11.5%, amounting to $ 1.3 billion. As a result, the negative  balance of foreign trade turnover of Armenia in January-April 2020  decreased by 15.1% per annum, amounting to $ 630.9 million, against  growth by 5.4% a year earlier. This was observed against the  background of a deterioration in the y-o-y dynamics of economic  activity in Armenia from a 7% growth in January-April 2019 to a 1.7%  decline in January-April 2020.

It should be noted that the World Bank (WB) in June updated the  forecast for Armenia's GDP for 2020, expecting a decline of 2.8%  (against the previously projected slowdown to 1.7%). As regards  Armenia's foreign trade, there are no fresh forecasts of the WB yet,  but in the previous forecast (May) for 2020, a decline of 1.5% and  2.6%, respectively, was already expected for export and import. In  its April forecast, the IMF expected a 1.5% drop in GDP in Armenia  for 2020. According to the forecasts of the RA Government for 2020,  the decline in GDP will be 2%. In its March forecast, the Central  Bank of the Republic of Armenia foreshadowed a slowdown in GDP growth  in 2020 to a stagnant 0.7% (from the actual 7.6% growth in 2019).

To recall, in Armenia, as part of measures to prevent the spread of  the coronavirus pandemic, a state of emergency was introduced from  March 16, which will last until June 13 inclusive. In this regard, a  temporary ban was imposed on many types of activities in the first  month of emergency, which was partially lifted in the second half of  April. Since May 4, the list of permitted types of economic activity  has been further expanded to ensure the vital functions of the  economy. Public transport was resumed on May 18, with mandatory  precautions to be taken to protect against coronavirus infection.  Since May 18, business entities that previously fell under the  temporary ban on activities also began to work, but so far some  catering and service facilities remain closed. The activity of  international air, rail, and bus services is still limited. Cargo  transportation is carried out in normal mode from the moment of  announcement of emergency.