ArmInfo. By May 2020, the foreign trade turnover between Armenia and Russia remained in growth with a slowdown in y-o-y rates from 4.8% to 2%, which was triggered by the decline of exports from 0.7% growth to 11.3% decline with weak growth acceleration of imports from 6.6% to 8.1%. According to the RA Statistical Committee, the foreign trade turnover between Armenia and Russia amounted to $ 636.4 million in January-April 2020, in particular, export -$ 174.1 million, and import - $ 462.3 million.
After Russia, China, Switzerland, Iran remained in the TOP-5 in foreign trade turnover with Armenia in January-April 2020 and the fifth position was taken by the UAE - respectively $ 245.5 million, $ 108.7 million, $ 101.1 million and $ 69.98 million. In the leading five in the growth in foreign trade turned out to be Russia and the UAE, with a maximum by the UAE - 54%, while among the other three countries, Switzerland registered the most decline-30.1%.
Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, Bulgaria and China gained a foothold in TOP-5 of export states after Russia, respectively $ 104.3 million, $ 63.3 million, $ 61.7 million and $ 57.8 million. In the top five exports, growth was recorded by three countries with a maximum in the UAE - 3.4-fold, and Russia and Switzerland scored a decline, with a maximum by Switzerland - 21.8%.
China, Iran, Turkey and Italy ranked in imports in TOP-5 after Russia - $ 187.7 million, $ 73.2 million, $ 62.7 million and $ 57.1 million respectively. Of these, only Russia remained in growth in imports, and of the other four, Turkey was in the most recession - 16 , 7%.
In total, in the structure of exports, zeroing was recorded for Brazil and Romania (with a decline in imports from these countries by 12.5-13.5%), and the Cyprus indicator is close to zero - a decline of 94.7% with an increase in imports by 20 , 7%. In the structure of imports, zeroing appears in Iraq with a decline in exports by 26.7%.
In January-April 2020, the volume of Armenia's foreign trade with the EAEU countries kept growing with a slowdown to 2.4% from 5% a year earlier, amounting to $ 661.8 million, while with the EU countries the decline slowed down from 23.6% to 13.4%, amounting to $ 399.95 million. Moreover, the export of Armenian goods to the EAEU countries amounted to $ 180.9 million with a turn in y-o-y dynamics from 0.7% growth to a 10.6% decline, with a slight acceleration in import growth from 6.9% to 8.3 % - to $ 480.9 million. And with EU countries, the decline in imports and exports slowed to 14.4% and 11.7%, respectively (from 16.2% and 34.2% a year earlier), amounting to $ 247.4 million and $ 152.5 million. Among the EAEU countries in terms of foreign trade turnover Belarus follows Russia - $ 22.2 million (a slowdown in y-o-y growth from 19.9% to 14.9%), Kazakhstan - $ 2.8 million (a way out of the 28.8% decline by 3.5% growth) and Kyrgyzstan - $ 391.2 thousand (a reversal from 69% growth to a 22.1% decline). Exports of Armenian goods to Belarus increased by 24.2% with an increase in imports by 12.5%, and a significant slowdown in the decline in exports of goods to Kazakhstan to 9.6% was accompanied by an acceleration in the growth of imports to 29.3%. In the direction of Kyrgyzstan, exports turned from a significant increase in the direction of a decline of 34.5%, with the imports with a way out of the recession by 17.4-fold growth.
According to the statistical data, the total foreign trade turnover of Armenia accelerated the y-o-y decline - from 4.2% in January-April 2019 to 10.4% in January-April 2020, amounting to $ 2.016 billion. In particular, exports slowed down the decline from 8.6% to 8.1%, amounting to $ 692.5 million, while imports accelerated decline from 1.9% to 11.5%, amounting to $ 1.3 billion. As a result, the negative balance of foreign trade turnover of Armenia in January-April 2020 decreased by 15.1% per annum, amounting to $ 630.9 million, against growth by 5.4% a year earlier. This was observed against the background of a deterioration in the y-o-y dynamics of economic activity in Armenia from a 7% growth in January-April 2019 to a 1.7% decline in January-April 2020.
It should be noted that the World Bank (WB) in June updated the forecast for Armenia's GDP for 2020, expecting a decline of 2.8% (against the previously projected slowdown to 1.7%). As regards Armenia's foreign trade, there are no fresh forecasts of the WB yet, but in the previous forecast (May) for 2020, a decline of 1.5% and 2.6%, respectively, was already expected for export and import. In its April forecast, the IMF expected a 1.5% drop in GDP in Armenia for 2020. According to the forecasts of the RA Government for 2020, the decline in GDP will be 2%. In its March forecast, the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia foreshadowed a slowdown in GDP growth in 2020 to a stagnant 0.7% (from the actual 7.6% growth in 2019).
To recall, in Armenia, as part of measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, a state of emergency was introduced from March 16, which will last until June 13 inclusive. In this regard, a temporary ban was imposed on many types of activities in the first month of emergency, which was partially lifted in the second half of April. Since May 4, the list of permitted types of economic activity has been further expanded to ensure the vital functions of the economy. Public transport was resumed on May 18, with mandatory precautions to be taken to protect against coronavirus infection. Since May 18, business entities that previously fell under the temporary ban on activities also began to work, but so far some catering and service facilities remain closed. The activity of international air, rail, and bus services is still limited. Cargo transportation is carried out in normal mode from the moment of announcement of emergency.
