ArmInfo. In January-April 2020, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia dropped by 27.1% per annum, with a 0.6% growth in the same period of 2019.
The dynamics of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the Russian Federation also declined by 30.3% , against the 16.6% growth a year earlier. This accelerated the y-o-y decline in the net inflow of transfers from Russia to 23% in January-April 2020 from 14.5% in January-April 2019.
According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, according to the results of January-April 2020, the inflow of transfers from Russia amounted to $ 198.9 million, and the outflow to the Russian Federation - $ 107.2 million, which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 91.7 million.
The deterioration of the dynamics is observed for transfers in the direction of the United States. In particular, the y- o-y growth in inflows from the USA sharply slowed down to a stagnant 0.1% in January-April 2020 from 35.8% in the same period of 2019, with the outflow trend in the USA reversing from 15.5% growth to 38, 2% decline. As a result, in January-April 2020, the inflow of transfers from the United States amounted to $ 81.9 million, and the outflow of $ 46.1 million, forming a net inflow of $ 35.8 million (with a 5-fold y-o-y growth). In total, the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia turned the annual dynamics in January-April 2020 towards a 17.1% decline from a 10.8% growth in the same period of 2019, amounting to $ 444.2 million. The same trend deterioration was observed for the outflow of transfers - a reversal from 8.1% growth to a 16.5% decline, the volume of which amounted to $ 331.3 million. As a result, the y-o-y dynamics of the net inflow of transfers turned from 19.1% growth in January-April 2019 towards a 18.7% decline in January-April 2020, with the absolute value sinking to $ 112.9 million. In the inflow, Russia's share decreased in January-April 2020 to 44.8% from 51% in January-April 2019, having also decreased in outflow - from 39% to 32.4%. And the share of the United States in the inflow, on the contrary, increased in y-o-y terms from 15.3% to 18.4%, while decreasing in outflow from 19% to 14%.
In January-April 2020 (April compared to December), the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia decreased by 58%, and in April alone they fell by 23%, while a year earlier the four-month decline of 17% was accompanied by April growth of 9.2% . A similar downward trend was demonstrated by the outflow - by 57% for four months with the April decline by 29%, against last year's 10.5% decline for four months with the April 19.8% increase. In the structure of the inflow, a four-month decline in transfers from Russia by 69% was accompanied by an April decline of 33.3%, with a similar downward trend in outflows - by 68.3% for 4 months and 43.1% for April. While the decline in the inflow of transfers from the United States for four months by 37% and in April alone by 20% was accompanied by a four-month increase in outflows by 1.8% with the April decline by 35%. As a result, the net inflow of transfers from Russia was in decline both in four months (69.4%) and in April (11%), while from the USA it was in decline in 4 months - by 60.4% with April growth by 25% that in comparison with last year's dynamics records a significant subsidence of the pace. According to the March forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2020, a significant reduction in money transfers of individuals is expected - by 16-19% (against the actual 9.7% increase in the inflow of transfers in 2019, moreover, from Russia - with the trend coming out of the recession to an ascending 0.6 %), due to the slowdown in the Russian economy and a significant devaluation of the ruble in the face of a sharp decline in oil prices. In parallel with this, according to this forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, a temporary ban on entry into the country as part of measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic will have a significant impact on the decline in remittances. It is worth noting that the WB in its updated June forecast for 2020 predicts a decline in Russia's GDP by 6%, and expects a slightly larger recession in the US economy - by 6.1%, and in Armenia's GDP forecasts a 2.8% decline. According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, in 2019, Russia's share in the structure of private transfers inflows decreased from 59% to 54%.
