ArmInfo. In Armenia, economic activity in January-May 2020 decreased by 3.9% per annum amid a deepening decline in exports and imports. In May this year by May 2019, economic activity decreased by 12.8%, while only in May 2020 it showed an increase of 13.3% (after the April decline of 13.5%). A year earlier, during the same periods, economic activity showed growth: in January-May 2019, by the same period of 2018, by 7.3%, the same in May 2019 compared to May 2018, and only in May - by 8.4%.
According to the final data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the economic decline activity in January-May 2020 to a greater extent determined by the scope construction, trade and services sectors, respectively 23.4%, 10.8% and 4.2%. But provided by the industrial sector and the energy complex 2.4% and 8.3% growth, respectively, restrained economic activity from a larger recession. A year earlier, in January-May 2019, growth showed: the services sector - 16.5%, trade - 9.4%, construction - 6.1%, the industrial sector - 5.6%, and the energy sector was in decline by 7.4%. Starting from 2019, only quarterly and annual data on the agricultural sector are published.
The industrial production price index increased in January-May 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 by 0.3%, in May 2020 compared with May 2019 - by 1.1%, and only in May 2020 it decreased by 0.3%. The same dynamics was recorded a year earlier in similar periods, but the indicators were slightly higher: the industrial production price index increased by 0.5% in January-May 2019 compared to the same period in 2018, and by 1.2% in May 2019 compared to May 2018. , and only in May 2019 decreased by 0.7%. On a monthly basis (in May 2020), the construction sector gave a decisive impetus to the growth of economic activity with an increase in volume of 3.1 times (against an increase of 43% in May 2019), followed by trade growth rates of 33.3% ( against growth by 9.2% in May 2019), the industrial sector - by 11.9% (against growth by 5.9% in May 2019), and the service sector - by 0.8% (against growth by 5.1% in May 2019). The energy complex lingered in recession, with a slowdown to 2% from 5.1% a year earlier. In annual terms (May 2020 to May 2019), the decline in economic activity was observed in all sectors: construction - 27%, services - 19.4%, retail sector - 18.4%, industrial sector - 3.9%, energy complex - 0, 1%. A year earlier, in May 2019 to May 2018, the growth sector was driven by the services sector - 14.8% and the industrial sector - 10.2%, against which trade - 4.9%, the construction sector - 2% and the energy complex - showed too modest upward dynamics 1%.
According to statistical data, in January-May 2020, the trading sector with the volume of 1.03 trillion holds leadership in absolute terms. drams ($ 2.1 billion). The industrial sector moved up to the second position - 735.6 billion drams ($ 1.52 billion), having shifted to the third place the services sector - 718.2 billion drams ($ 1.48 billion). Agriculture was traditionally in the fourth position, but due to the lack of data, the construction sector turned out to be in this place - 77.5 billion drams ($ 160.1 million). The volume of electricity generation in January-May 2020 amounted to 3246.1 million kWh, of which only in May - 575.4 million kWh.
At the same time, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia in January-May 2020 amounted to 1227.6 billion drams ($ 2539.2 million) with an annual decline of 11.2%. In its structure, the export volume decreased by 8.1% in annual terms to 428.5 billion drams ($ 886.2 million), and imports - by 12.8% to 799.1 billion drams ($ 1653.0 million). In May 2020 alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 13% due to an increase in exports by 30.7% with an increase in imports by 4.3%, and compared to May 2019, a decrease in foreign trade turnover by 17.3% was largely triggered by a decline in imports 21.8% compared to exports - 8.7%. A year earlier, in January-May 2019, foreign trade turnover decreased by 2.6% per annum due to a decline in imports by 3.4% and exports by 0.9%, and the May decline in foreign trade by 2.2% was triggered by a downward trend. imports by 3.3% with a decline in exports of 0.1%, compared with May 2018, a decrease in foreign trade by 3.9% came from a decline in imports - 10.5% with an increase in exports by 11.7%. According to new (June) forecasts of the World Bank, the decline in Armenia's GDP in 2020 will be 2.8%. As regards Armenia's foreign trade, the WB in the previous forecast (May) expected for 2020 a decline in exports and imports by 1.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The IMF in its April forecast expected a 1.5% drop in Armenia's GDP for 2020, but a revision in June of forecasts for a greater deterioration in the global economy and Russia's GDP portends a deepening decline in Armenia's GDP as well. According to forecasts of the RA Government for 2020, the decline in GDP will be 2%. The new forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia for 2020 (June) was revised towards a decline in GDP by 4% (against the actual 7.6% growth in 2019).
It should be noted that since March 16, as part of measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, a State of Emergency (PE) was introduced, which was to last until July 13, but there is a high probability of an extension of another month. In this regard, many types of activities in the first month of emergency were temporarily banned (including restaurants, cafes, bars, casinos, hotels, canteens, retail facilities and industries not related to food and medical products). As part of the ban, public transport (including the metro) was suspended in the republic and the movement of other vehicles (except for taxis) was restricted, and international aviation, rail and bus services were limited. The ban was partially lifted in the second half of April, then from May 4 the list of permitted types of economic activity was further expanded to ensure the vital functions of the economy, and from May 18 the ban was lifted almost completely. From the same day, public transport (including the metro) and many public catering facilities and services began to operate, but so far the activities of international air, rail, and bus services have been limited.
