ArmInfo. In fact, Armenia is just entering the stage of a real economic crisis, with all its attendant internal and external manifestations. Former Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia, economist Bagrat Asatryan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
''The COVID-19 pandemic has certainly become a serious blow to both individual economies of the world and the global economy. Against this background, Armenia can still be ranked among the countries that have suffered average economic losses. The drop in the first half of the year of the economic activity in Armenia by 4.7% is far from critical indicator. Especially in comparison with neighboring Georgia and Azerbaijan, "he stressed.
Another question, according to the economist, is whether the Armenian economy will be able to get out of the current rather difficult situation with minimal losses. According to him, it is too early to predict a similar or opposite scenario today. Especially in an environment where the uncertainty caused by the coronavirus is likely to persist for quite some time.
The economist considers it necessary to take into account that the reduction in domestic demand and supply had a priority impact on the economic results of the first half of the year. That is, the processes that the government was able to somehow influence. Meanwhile, taking into account the forecasted external negative impulses, in the second half of the year Armenia, according to him, will face more fundamental threats - with a reduction in external financial flows and a drop in export opportunities.
Such prospects, according to the economist, imply much more voluminous and effective steps and interventions by the government and the financial regulator. It is their efficiency that will determine the final results of the economy at the end of the year. In this light, Asatryan considers it necessary to abandon attempts at further forecasting and engage in a thorough study of the current state of the economy. As well as a segmental assessment of the reasons for the recession and the development of measures to prevent recession in the future, recovery and development of the economy.
"There are also points of view according to which the post-crisis economic recovery will be accelerated. In my opinion, this thesis rather refers to the earlier stages of the current crisis. Today experts are much more restrained in their assessments. Of course, in the modern globalizing world, the economies of different countries are much more interconnected than they were yesterday. Mutual, both negative and positive influence is great. Nevertheless, all this in no way means the identity of economic impulses and scenarios in different countries. The current economic policy will still be of decisive importance, "Asatryan concluded.