Friday, August 14 2020 12:59
David Stepanyan

Economist: Armenia is just entering the stage of economic crisis

Economist: Armenia is just entering the stage of economic crisis

ArmInfo. In fact, Armenia is just entering the stage of a real economic crisis, with all its attendant internal and external manifestations. Former Chairman of  the Central Bank of Armenia, economist Bagrat Asatryan expressed a  similar opinion to ArmInfo.

''The COVID-19 pandemic has certainly become a serious blow to both  individual economies of the world and the global economy. Against  this background, Armenia can still be ranked among the countries that  have suffered average economic losses. The drop in the first half of  the year of the economic activity in Armenia by 4.7% is far from  critical indicator. Especially in comparison with neighboring Georgia  and Azerbaijan, "he stressed.

Another question, according to the economist, is whether the Armenian  economy will be able to get out of the current rather difficult  situation with minimal losses. According to him, it is too early to  predict a similar or opposite scenario today. Especially in an  environment where the uncertainty caused by the coronavirus is likely  to persist for quite some time.

The economist considers it necessary to take into account that the  reduction in domestic demand and supply had a priority impact on the  economic results of the first half of the year. That is, the  processes that the government was able to somehow influence.  Meanwhile, taking into account the forecasted external negative  impulses, in the second half of the year Armenia, according to him,  will face more fundamental threats - with a reduction in external  financial flows and a drop in export opportunities.

Such prospects, according to the economist, imply much more  voluminous and effective steps and interventions by the government  and the financial regulator. It is their efficiency that will  determine the final results of the economy at the end of the year. In  this light, Asatryan considers it necessary to abandon attempts at  further forecasting and engage in a thorough study of the current  state of the economy. As well as a segmental assessment of the  reasons for the recession and the development of measures to prevent  recession in the future, recovery and development of the economy.

"There are also points of view according to which the post-crisis  economic recovery will be accelerated. In my opinion, this thesis  rather refers to the earlier stages of the current crisis. Today  experts are much more restrained in their assessments. Of course, in  the modern globalizing world, the economies of different countries  are much more interconnected than they were yesterday. Mutual, both  negative and positive influence is great. Nevertheless, all this in  no way means the identity of economic impulses and scenarios in  different countries. The current economic policy will still be of  decisive importance, "Asatryan concluded.

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